Day 3 Oulook

The Storm Prediction Center has portions of the Ark-La-Tex under a slight risk of severe weather some of the areas include counties in the NEBAR Repeater coverage area. Counties in the NEBAR Repeater Coverage area that are in the risk area are: McCurtain; Morris; and Red River County. It is important to remember this is still 3 days away and the risk area could be shifted further east or completely removed in later outlooks.

Here is the current Day 3 Convective Outlook Text from the Storm Prediction Center.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTH TX TO SERN NEB/SWRN
   IA...
  
   ...CNTRL TX TO SERN NEB/SWRN IA...
  
   GFS/NAM SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT
   ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS FRIDAY INDUCING WEAK HEIGHT FALLS FROM
   NRN TX INTO SRN NEB.  AT THE SFC...LEE TROUGH/FRONT WILL BE
   DISPLACED EWD TO A LONGITUDE NEAR 100W BY 21/00Z.  WITH WARM SECTOR
   DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 60S TO PERHAPS NEAR 70
   ACROSS TX IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR ROBUST
   DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MS
   VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES WHERE
   LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE.  BOTH
   THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE WELL EAST OF
   THIS BOUNDARY DUE PARTLY TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
   IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL INFLUENCE MORE
   DIURNAL CONVECTION FARTHER WEST ALONG THE FRONT AS SIGNIFICANT
   CLOUDS/PRECIP COULD REDUCE INSTABILITY FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE.
   EVEN SO...SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
   AFOREMENTIONED REGION OF THE PLAINS WITH 50KT+ SPEEDS EXPECTED FOR
   FRONTAL CONVECTION.  AS A RESULT...MULTI-FACETED STORM
   MODE/EVOLUTION IS LIKELY WITH NUMEROUS WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORM
   CLUSTERS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS LIKELY.

Drought Information Statement

000
AXUS74 KSHV 092121
DGTSHV
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-101200-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
420 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2011

...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL DURING LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
BUT EXTREME AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...

SYNOPSIS...

MUCH OF APRIL WAS CHARACTERIZED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN...UNTIL A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INITIATED A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE FINAL TEN DAYS OF APRIL...WHICH LINGERED INTO
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF MAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF FIVE TO TEN
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING TWELVE INCHES...WERE RECORDED ACROSS
THESE AREAS...WHICH EITHER ELIMINATED OR SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THIS EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ALSO PRODUCED MINOR FLOODING
ACROSS THE SULPHUR RIVER OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...AS WELL AS THE OUACHITA RIVER
BASIN OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. MINOR FLOODING WAS ALSO OBSERVED
ALONG THE GLOVER AND LITTLE RIVERS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS WERE ALSO A RESULT ALONG THE RED
RIVER AND LOWER OUACHITA RIVERS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH
POINTS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEAR OR JUST HAVING RECENTLY CRESTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA
OBSERVED MUCH LOWER CUMULATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES. AS A RESULT...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WESTCENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AS EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED GENERALLY
ALONG THE LOWER SABINE RIVER AND TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY. HERE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WERE ONLY SOME 25-50% OF NORMAL...WITH WHAT IS USUALLY THE WETTEST PERIOD OF
THE YEAR. EXTREME (D3) AND SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ELSEWHERE
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT
OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST
OF A RUSTON...TO JONESBORO...TO RICHWOOD LOUISIANA LINE...WHERE EXCESSIVELY
HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO FELL DURING THE 26TH-27TH OF APRIL.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL...AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPERIENCED DURING APRIL AND THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY HAS MAINTAINED
VERY DRY SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND MUCH OF NORTH
LOUISIANA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HOWEVER...MUCH IMPROVEMENT
WAS OBSERVED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD FIVE TO TEN INCHES OF RAIN
THAT FELL THROUGHOUT APRIL AND EARLY MAY. WHEREAS WET SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS
HAS GREENED VEGETATION...ELIMINATED THE BURN BANS...AND REDUCED THE FIRE
DANGER ACROSS THESE AREAS...THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE CONTINUATION OF
LOW LAKE AND POND LEVELS...WITH MANY PASTURES STILL VERY DRY.
THUS...PRODUCERS ARE STILL PROVIDING SUPPLEMENTAL FEED TO THEIR LIVESTOCK.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR RUSK...PANOLA...NACOGDOCHES...SHELBY...
ANGELINA...SAN AUGUSTINE...AND SABINE COUNTIES IN EASTERN TEXAS. BURN BANS
ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR DESOTO...RED RIVER...SABINE...AND NATCHITOCHES PARISHES
IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. FIRE DANGER REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS.
THE PLEASURE POINT WATER SYSTEM IN ANGELINA COUNTY TEXAS REMAINS
UNDER A MILD RATIONING OF WATER UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED THROUGH MUCH OF APRIL HAVE BEGUN TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. IN FACT...MOST LOCALES
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA EXPERIENCED ONE OF THE WARMEST APRILS
ON RECORD. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE APRIL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...THEIR
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...AND HOW THEY RANKED AS WARMEST APRILS ON RECORD...FOR
SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION:

CITY:                 APRIL 2011         DEPARTURE
                       AVG TEMP.        FROM NORMAL

SHREVEPORT LA            70.8              +5.6
NOTE: APRIL RANKS AS THE 5TH WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD, BEHIND 1967, 1930, 2006,
      AND 1925. RECORDS SINCE 1872.

SHREVEPORT LA            69.5              +4.3
(SOUTH SHREVEPORT/SOUTHERN HILLS OFFICIAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVING STATION)
NOTE: APRIL RANKS AS THE THIRD WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD, TIED WITH 2006.
      RECORDS SINCE 1980.

MONROE LA                71.0              +5.1
NOTE: APRIL RANKS AS THE 2ND WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD, BEHIND 1981. RECORDS
      SINCE 1930.

TEXARKANA AR             67.1              +2.8
NOTE: APRIL TIES AS THE 17TH WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1892.

EL DORADO AR             66.4              +2.7

DEQUEEN AR               63.5              +3.1

TYLER TX                 72.1              +5.5
NOTE: APRIL RANKS AS THE 3RD WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD, BEHIND 1930 AND 1925.
      RECORDS SINCE 1896.

LONGVIEW TX              71.6              +6.2
NOTE: APRIL RANKS AS THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1902.

LUFKIN TX                72.0              +5.8
NOTE: APRIL RANKS AS THE 2ND WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD, BEHIND 1967. RECORDS
      SINCE 1949.


A DISTINCT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE
MONTH OF APRIL...WITH WIDESPREAD SIX TO TEN INCHES OF RAIN RECORDED...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWELVE INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF MCCURTAIN
COUNTY OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. BELOW IS A LIST
OF THE APRIL MONTHLY RAINFALL...THEIR DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENTAGES
OF NORMAL...FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION:


CITY:                 APRIL 2011         DEPARTURE      PERCENTAGE
                       RAINFALL         FROM NORMAL      OF NORMAL

SHREVEPORT LA            2.85              -1.57            64%

SHREVEPORT LA            4.63              +0.21           105%
(SOUTH SHREVEPORT/SOUTHERN HILLS OFFICIAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVING STATION)

MONROE LA               11.84              +7.07           248%
NOTE: THIS WAS THE 2ND WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1930.

NATCHITOCHES LA          2.30              -2.22            51%

COLUMBIA LA              3.90              -2.06            65%

TEXARKANA AR             5.94              +1.99           150%

EL DORADO AR             8.29              +3.74           182%
NOTE: THIS WAS THE 17TH WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1905.

HOPE 3NE AR              9.68              +4.79           198%
NOTE: THIS WAS THE 9TH WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1915.

PRESCOTT 2NNW AR        11.93              +6.96            26%
NOTE: THIS WAS THE 4TH WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD BEHIND 1966, 1973, AND 1957.
      RECORDS SINCE 1896.

DEQUEEN AR              11.64              +6.79           255%
NOTE: THIS WAS THE 3RD WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD BEHIND 1957 AND 1986.
      RECORDS SINCE 1936.

MT. PLEASANT TX          3.46              -0.31            92%

TYLER TX                 3.25              -0.45            88%

LONGVIEW TX              3.07              -0.85            78%

LUFKIN TX                1.55              -1.58            50%
NOTE: THIS WAS THE 15TH DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1949.


SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS...
MT. HERMAN               7.43              +2.89           164%
BROKEN BOW              12.25              +7.71           270%
IDABEL                   7.62              +3.28           176%


PLENTIFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SIX TO IN EXCESS OF TWELVE INCHES ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
DURING APRIL HAS SIGNIFICANTLY EATEN AWAY AT THE LONG TERM RAINFALL
DEFICITS SINCE THE DROUGHT BEGAN OVER A YEAR AGO. HOWEVER...LITTLE CHANGE
WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITH THE LONG TERM DEFICITS...WITH SEVERE...EXTREME...
AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TEXAS
AND NORTH LOUISIANA. THESE AREAS ON AVERAGE HAVE SEEN ONLY 55-65% OF THEIR
NORMAL RAINFALL SINCE THE DROUGHT BEGAN IN MARCH 2010. BELOW IS A LIST OF
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM MARCH 2010 THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY 2011...THEIR
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...AND THEIR PERCENTAGES OF NORMAL...FOR SELECTED
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION:

CITY:           MARCH `10 - MAY `11      DEPARTURE      PERCENTAGE
                  (THROUGH 5/7/11)      FROM NORMAL      OF NORMAL

SHREVEPORT LA           36.88             -24.23            60%

SHREVEPORT LA           36.96             -24.15            60%
(SOUTH SHREVEPORT/SOUTHERN HILLS OFFICIAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVING STATION)

MONROE LA               59.15              -0.36            99%

NATCHITOCHES LA         34.25             -28.41            55%

COLUMBIA LA             39.73             -33.57            54%

TEXARKANA AR            37.04             -18.64            67%

EL DORADO AR            39.87             -25.11            61%

HOPE 3NE AR             44.07             -21.94            67%

PRESCOTT 2NNW AR        48.17             -18.05            73%

DEQUEEN AR              44.02             -20.92            68%

MT. PLEASANT TX         36.57             -17.41            68%

TYLER TX                36.10             -17.80            67%

LONGVIEW TX             31.17             -26.92            54%

LUFKIN TX               34.64             -19.70            64%


SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS...
MT. HERMAN              50.25             -16.45            75%
BROKEN BOW              57.63              -9.07            86%
IDABEL                  45.11             -16.09            74%


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST WEDNESDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SLOWLY EJECT NORTHEAST OUT INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER EAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY...AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO COOL TEMPERATURES BEFORE IT WASHES OUT
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SERIES OF SYSTEMS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR.

THE THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MAY-JUNE-JULY...ISSUED BY
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...INDICATES GREATER PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. EQUAL
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL/NORMAL/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
INDICATED OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE THREE MONTH
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THROUGH JULY INDICATES GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL/NORMAL/BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL ARE CURRENTLY INDICATED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS...NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES OF POOL
STAGES AND RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING LATE APRIL AND EARLY
MAY. IN FACT...RESERVOIRS HERE HAVE RISEN TO SOME TWO TO FIVE FEET ABOVE
NORMAL POOL STAGE...WITH BROKEN BOW LAKE...DEQUEEN LAKE...GILLHAM LAKE...AND
DIERKS LAKE RISING SOME TWELVE TO TWENTY FIVE FEET ABOVE NORMAL POOL STAGE
GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUNDS AND EXTENSIVE RUNOFF. MEANWHILE...BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS
DURING APRIL HAS RESULTED IN LOWER THAN NORMAL POOL STAGES ACROSS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS...WITH RESERVOIRS SUCH AS LAKE TAWAKONI...LAKE FORK...MARTIN
LAKE...LAKE NACOGDOCHES...AND SAM RAYBURN LAKE REMAINING SOME THREE TO SEVEN
FEET BELOW NORMAL. MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
ALONG THE SULPHUR RIVER IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND THROUGH MUCH OF MAY/EARLY
JUNE ALONG THE OUACHITA RIVER IN SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS. FLOWS ALONG THE RED
RIVER IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA WILL ALSO REMAIN
ABNORMALLY HIGH THROUGH THE THIRD WEEK OF MAY...AS CONSIDERABLE RUNOFF AND
RESERVOIR RELEASES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
CONTINUE TO ROUTE DOWNSTREAM.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY EARLY JUNE.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT HOMEPAGE: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SHV
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM: WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR: WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER: WWW.DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
LA OFFICE OF STATE CLIMATOLOGY: WWW.LOSC.LSU.EDU
TX OFFICE OF STATE CLIMATOLOGY: WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC
OK CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY: HTTP://CLIMATE.OK.GOV
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY: HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV
TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURAL COMMUNICATIONS-AGNEWS: HTTP://AGNEWS.TAMU.EDU
LA DEPT. OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY: HTTP://WWW.LDAF.STATE.LA.US/
TEXAS FOREST SERVICE: HTTP://TEXASFORESTSERVICE.TAMU.EDU
ARKANSAS FIRE INFO: HTTP://WWW.ARKFIREINFO.ORG
OKLAHOMA FORESTRY SERVICES: HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.OK.GOV/WILDLAND-FIRE
LSU AG CENTER: HTTP://WWW.LSUAGCENTER.COM

Northern Florida Hams Respond to Aftermath of Alabama Storm

After the devastating storms that swept through Alabama last week, radio amateurs from the ARRLs’ Northern Florida Section -- at the invitation of ARRL Alabama Section Emergency Coordinator Greg Gross, K4GR -- are making their way to Alabama to provide assistance.

“We contacted Greg and worked out a disaster operation assignment,” ARRL Northern Florida Section Manager Paul Eakin, KJ4G, told the ARRL. “We have already sent two teams to Alabama and have five others on stand-by.”
Both teams from Northern Florida are comprised of two amateurs and equipment. Team 1 -- Eakin and Donna Barker, WQ4M -- came to Alabama with a motorhome equipped with a full command post, as well as a tow vehicle with HF and VHF/UHF capabilities. “We took spare UHF/VHF antennas and 600 feet of LMR-400, three HF stations, four VHF/UHF mobiles and the supplies to build portable HF antennas,” Eakin said.

The team was originally assigned to Hackleburg -- a town of slightly more than 1400 residents. On April 27, thetown suffered catastrophic damage when it was hit by an EF5 tornado that killed more than 30 Hackleburg residents. On May 2, the American Red Cross declared the town 75 percent destroyed. Instead, Eakin and Barker are now in Jasper, Alabama. “We are operating a net control station and providing a crossband repeater for Marion County’s Emergency Operations Center,” Eakin explained.
Norm Scholer, K4GFD, and Gary Alberstadt, KA3FZO, make up Team 2. Eakin told the ARRL that this team has a pick-up truck and a fifth wheel trailer with portable equipment and two repeaters. Team 2 is in Hackleburg. Both Team 1 and Team 2 were required to be self-contained for seven days.
“This was a very damaging tornado and it will be very long time before everything is cleared up,” Eakin said. “Greg, the Section Emergency Coordinator in Alabama, is on top of the situation as I can tell and he is doing a great job. It appears he has approximately five ‘hot spot’ areas going on at once.”

...SEVERAL STORM SURVEYS HAVE BEEN COMPLETED CONCERNING STORMS

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
840 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...SEVERAL STORM SURVEYS HAVE BEEN COMPLETED CONCERNING STORMS
WHICH OCCURRED APRIL 25 AND APRIL 26...

THIS DAMAGE OCCURRED OVER A TWO DAY PERIOD BEGINNING MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
DAMAGE NOTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BECAUSE OF THE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGE WITH MULTIPLE
TORNADO WARNINGS ISSUED...IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO BEGIN
COMPLETING THE NECESSARY STORM DAMAGE SURVEYS ACROSS THE REGION.
AS SURVEYS ARE COMPLETED...TORNADOES WILL BE PLACED IN
CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER. DAMAGE SURVEYED WHICH IS DETERMINED TO BE NON
TORNADIC WILL BE PLACED AT THE END.

1. TATUM, TX
RATING: EF1
DATE: APRIL 26 2011
TIME: 6:35 PM THROUGH 6:54 PM
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 100 YDS
INJURIES: 0
FATALITIES: 0

DETAILS:
A FEW TREES WERE SNAPPED AT THEIR BASE AND HAD LARGE LIMBS BROKEN
OFF WITH THE INITIAL TOUCHDOWN ALONG CR 2138 SOUTHWEST OF TATUM.
IT CONTINUED ALONG A NORTHEAST PATH WHERE IT DESTROYED A STORAGE
OUTBUILDING AND UPROOTED SEVERAL TREES AT THE INTERSECTION OF FM
2187 AND HWY 149. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE IT
UPROOTED SEVERAL TREES AND RIPPED OFF THE TOPS OF SEVERAL MORE
ALONG CR 2216 AND CR 2221. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO THE NORTHEAST
WHERE NUMEROUS TREE DAMAGE ALONG A PARALLEL PATH WITH HENDRICKS
LAKE ROAD WAS NOTED. THE TORNADO THEN BRIEFLY CROSSED INTO PANOLA
AND HARRISON COUNTIES KNOCKING OVER A FEW TREES ALONG HWY 43,
WHERE THE TORNADO THEN LIFTED. THE PATH LENGTH WAS 13.8 MILES AND
MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80-85 MPH.

2. 4 MILES SSE OF MARSHALL, TX
RATING: EF2
DATE: APRIL 26 2011
TIME: 7:04 PM THROUGH 7:14 PM
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 400 YDS
INJURIES: 0
FATALITIES: 0

DETAILS:
A FEW TREES WERE SNAPPED AT THEIR BASE AND HAD LARGE LIMBS BROKEN
OFF WITH THE INITIAL TOUCHDOWN ALONG FM 2625 JUST WEST OF HWY
59. THE TORNADO PARALLELED FM 2625 CAUSING SPORADIC TREE DAMAGE
UNTIL IT REACHED THE INTERSECTION OF FM 2625 AND TAYLOR ROAD. THE
TORNADO STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY IN A SHORT TIME FRAME, CAUSING EF2
DAMAGE TO TWO RESIDENTIAL HOMES AND EF1 DAMAGE TO A THIRD. ONE
HOUSE COMPLETELY LOST ITS ROOF WHILE ANOTHER HAD AN ENTIRE ROOM
DESTROYED. THE THIRD HOME HAD ITS METAL ROOF PEELED OFF WHILE
SUSTAINING PARTIAL WALL FAILURE. NUMEROUS TREES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE HOMES WERE COMPLETELY TOPPLED OR HAD THEIR TOPS SHEARED OFF.
THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE IT INTERSECTED
BLOCKER ROAD NEAR FM 2625 SNAPPING AND UPROOTING NUMEROUS TREES.
THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO THE NORTHEAST DISSIPATING OVER A LOGGING
ROAD A MILE TO THE EAST OF BLOCKER RD. THE PATH LENGTH WAS 5.5
MILES AND MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 120-125 MPH.

3. JONESVILLE, TX
RATING: EF0
DATE: APRIL 26 2011
TIME: 7:24 PM THROUGH 7:34 PM
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 70 YDS
INJURIES: 0
FATALITIES: 0

DETAILS:
A FEW TREES WERE SNAPPED WITH THE INITIAL TOUCHDOWN ALONG AND JUST
NORTH I-20, NEAR THE HWY 80 EXIT JUST WEST OF WASKOM. THE TORNADO
CONTINUED NORTHEAST CAUSING SPORADIC TREE DAMAGE ALONG BELLVIEW
ROAD. THE TORNADO THEN CONTINUED NORTHEAST WHERE IT TOPPLED
SEVERAL LARGE TREES AND KNOCKED DOWN LARGE LIMBS ALONG CONCORD
ROAD BETWEEN FM 134 AND OWEN GEORGE ROAD. THE TORNADO CONTINUED
NORTHEAST WHERE IT TOOK THE TOPS OFF OF A FEW TREES ALONG OWEN
GEORGE ROAD. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST KNOCKING OVER A FEW
TREES ALONG FM 9, WHERE IT FINALLY DISSIPATED. THE PATH LENGTH WAS
5.94 MILES AND MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70-75 MPH.

4. BENTON, LA
RATING: EF0
DATE: APRIL 26 2011
TIME: 7:34 PM THROUGH 7:39 PM
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 50 YDS
INJURIES: 0
FATALITIES: 0

DETAILS:
SEVERAL LARGE TREES WERE TOPPLED AND A FEW LARGE LIMBS WERE BROKEN
OFF TREES AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE MAGNOLIA CHASE SUBDIVISION ALONG
BENTON ROAD JUST SOUTH OF THE CITY OF BENTON. THE TORNADO
CONTINUED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WHERE IT BROKE OFF LARGE LIMBS ON
A FEW TREES ALONG BENTON ROAD NEAR JACOBS TRAIL. THE TORNADO
CONTINUED TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE IT SNAPPED A TREE AT ITS BASE AND
KNOCKED DOWN A FEW LARGE LIMBS ALONG PALMETTO ROAD SOUTH OF THE
CITY OF BENTON. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST WHERE IT TOPPLED A
LARGE TREE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF LARKIN STREET AND PALMETTO
ROAD AND FINALLY DISSIPATED. THE PATH LENGTH WAS 3.57 MILES AND MAXIMUM
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70-75 MPH.

5. KEACHI...FRIERSON, LA
RATING: EF2
DATE: APRIL 26 2011
TIME: 7:46 PM THROUGH 8:39 PM
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 0.5 MILES
INJURIES: 2
FATALITIES: 0

DETAILS:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONDUCTED A STORM SURVEY IN PANOLA COUNTY
TEXAS...DESOTO...CADDO AND BOSSIER PARISHES IN LOUISIANA AND
TRACKED A LONG TRACK TORNADO. MOST OF THE DAMAGE ALONG THE PATH
CONSISTED OF EF0 TO EF1 TYPE DAMAGE. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR KEACHI...LONGSTREET
AND FRIERSON EXHIBITED LOW END EF2 DAMAGE. THE TORNADO WAS
CONSISTENTLY ON THE GROUND FOR A CONTINUOUS 42 MILES. TREES WERE
SNAPPED AND UPROOTED...AND AS MANY AS 3 DOZEN HOMES SUSTAINED
MINOR DAMAGE WITH A FEW MODERATELY DAMAGED HOMES WHERE CARPORTS
WERE PEELED BACK OR TREES FELL ON THEM. SEVERAL BARNS WERE KNOCKED
OVER OR DESTROYED AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST DAMAGE WAS LOCATED IN THE
COMMUNITY OF FRIERSON WHERE WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED AND
THE TORNADO WAS AT ITS WIDEST POINT. OTHER DAMAGE ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE TORNADO TRACK IS RELATED TO REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFT
OTHERWISE KNOWN AS STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE TORNADO TRACKED FROM
EASTERN PANOLA COUNTY NEAR FM 3359 NORTHEAST INTO DESOTO PARISH
ACROSS BELLE BOWER TEXAS LINE ROAD...STATE ROUTE 3015 WHERE TREES
WERE SNAPPED OFF 4 TO 6 FEET OFF THE GROUND AND 2 TANKS FROM A GAS
WELL WERE OVERTURNED. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST CROSSING
STATE ROUTE 5 BETWEEN KEACHI AND LONGSTREET?THEN CROSSED SMYRNA
ROAD KNOCKING OVER TREES ONTO AND AROUND HOMES. THE TORNADO
CROSSED HWY 171 SOUTH OF THE HWY 5 AND 171 INTERSECTION AND
FOLLOWED ALONG JESSIE LATTIN WHERE A SEVERAL HOMES WERE DAMAGED
AND BARNS DESTROYED. THE STORM CONTINUED NORTHEAST CROSSING I49
WHERE RED BLUFF ROAD CROSSES UNDER. NUMEROUS TREES WERE DOWNED AND
INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS THE STORM MOVED INTO FRIERSON. THE
TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST CROSSING THE INTERSECTION OF ELLERBE
ROAD AND HWY 1 WHERE SEVERAL PECAN TREES WERE SNAPPED THEN ACROSS
THE RED RIVER INTO BOSSIER PARISH AND ACROSS ATKINS CLARK ROAD
WHERE A MOBILE TRAILER WAS FLIPPED AT A GAS WELL INJURING THE
OCCUPANTS. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST CROSSING HWY 154 AND
157 INTERSECTION DAMAGING TREES AND POWERLINES BEFORE WEAKENING
AND LIFTING NEAR LAKE BISTENEAU. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
110 - 115 MPH.

6. DUBBERLY, LA
RATING: EF1
DATE: ARPIL 26 2011
TIME: 8:54 PM THROUGH 8:57 PM
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 150 YARDS
INJURIES: 0
FATALITIES: 0

DETAILS:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONDUCTED A STORM SURVEY IN WEBSTER
PARISH LA NEAR DUBBERLY AND CONCLUDED THAT DAMAGE WAS THE RESULT
OF AN EF1 TORNADO. NUMEROUS TREES WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED SOUTH
OF SIBLEY EAST OF 371. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST INTO
DUBBERLY WHERE SEVERAL HOMES SUSTAINED ROOF DAMAGE. NUMEROUS TREES
WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED ALONG HWY 531NORTH OF DUBBERLY. THE
TORNADO LIFTED AS IT APPROACHED INTERSTATE 20. THE STORM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS TORNADO IS THE SAME CELL THAT PRODUCED A 42
MILE LONG TRACK ACROSS DESOTO PARISH. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 95-105 MPH.

7. HALL SUMMIT, LA
RATING: EF1
DATE: APRIL 26 2011
TIME: 10:55 PM THROUGH 10:56 PM
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 125 YARDS
INJURIES: 0
FATALITIES: 0

DETAILS:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONDUCTED A STORM SURVEY IN
RED RIVER PARISH LA NEAR HALL SUMMIT AND CONCLUDED THAT DAMAGE
WAS THE RESULT OF AN EF1 TORNADO. A COUPLE BARNS WERE DESTROYED
WEST OF TOWN NORTH OF STATE ROUTE 514. THE TORNADO CONTINUED EAST
SNAPPING AND UPROOTING TREES ALONG 514. SEVERAL HOMES IN TOWN
SUSTAINED MINOR TO MODERATE ROOF DAMAGE. THE TORNADO CROSSED 514
EAST OF HALL SUMMIT WHERE NUMEROUS TREES WERE SNAPPED ONTO THE
ROAD. THE TORNADO CONTINUED EAST CROSSING 371 KNOCKING OVER A FEW
TREES BEFORE LIFTING EAST OF 371. A SHERIFF DEPUTY WITNESSED THE
TORNADO CROSSING THE HWY EAST OF HALL SUMMIT AND WAS BLOCKED IN
FROM FALLING TREES. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 85-90 MPH.

Public Severe Weather Outlook

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
   WOUS40 KWNS 261153
   ARZ000-LAZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-261800-
  
   PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0653 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
  
   ...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING AND
   OVERNIGHT...
  
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD
   DAMAGING WIND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
  
   THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
  
          SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
          EXTREME NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
          SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
          NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
  
   ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...THE OHIO AND
   TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN
   PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
  
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE
   RED RIVER AREA OF TEXAS...EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS AN
   UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LONG TRACK
   STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
   WIND MAY ALSO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
   FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
  
   STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
   VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
   REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
   RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
   WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
  
   ..DIAL.. 04/26/2011
  
   $$       

Hazardous Weather Outlook

000
FLUS44 KSHV 191643
HWOSHV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1143 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>012-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-201645-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-
TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-
CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-
1143 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING LATE TODAY JUST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SO STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...KEEPING RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MORE
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS WHICH CAN REACH SEVERE LIMITS. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

Day One Convective Outlook

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011
  
   VALID 191630Z - 201200Z
  
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
   PARTS OF ERN OK...AR...CNTRL/SRN MO...WRN TN...KY...IL...IND AND WRN
   OH...
  
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD
   INTO SRN TX...
  
   ...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
  
   ...OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO ERN OK/AR...
  
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
   MORNING WILL CONTINUE NEWD...CONTRIBUTING TO A CORRIDOR OF 30-60 M
   HEIGHT FALLS PER 12-HR AT 500 MB FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE
   MID MS VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE
   LOW ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM ANALYZED OVER W-CNTRL MO AS OF 16Z WILL
   DEVELOP NNEWD TO N OF STL BY 19/21Z...THE IL/IND BORDER NEAR DNV BY
   20/03Z TO LAKE ERIE BY 20/12Z.  A WARM FRONT WILL PRECEDE THE
   LOW...GRADUALLY LIFTING NWD THROUGH IL/IND/OH/PA.  TRAILING COLD
   FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW OVER
   CNTRL IL SWWD THROUGH E-CNTRL MO...NWRN AR AND SERN OK BY 20/00Z.
   THIS COLD FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
  
   12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES/EML IN PLACE FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE
   MID/LOWER MS VALLEYS.  THESE LAPSE RATES RESIDE ABOVE A MOIST AND
   RATHER BROAD WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES OF 1.0-1.5
   INCHES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.  ASIDE FROM ISOLATED
   OCCURRENCES OF HAIL N OF WARM FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY TODAY...A CAP
   AT THE BASE OF THE EML IS EXPECTED TO DELAY SURFACE-BASED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
  
   ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE WILL YIELD A MODERATELY TO STRONG UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
   TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG S OF THE WARM
   FRONT IN THE OH VALLEY...TO 3000-4000+ J/KG AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM
   SRN MO INTO ERN OK/WRN AR.  FRONTAL UPLIFT COUPLED WITH INCREASED
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO MIDLEVEL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO
   FOSTER TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON FROM THE VICINITY OF THE
   SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL MO SWWD TO ERN OK/WRN AR.
  
   AN ISALLOBARICALLY BACKED WIND FIELD AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW WILL
   RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FROM E-CNTRL MO EWD
   THROUGH CNTRL PARTS OF IL/IND.  GIVEN MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES
   /I.E. SUPERCELLS/...THIS AREA WILL REPRESENT THE GREATEST RISK FOR
   TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/ FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE
   SEGMENTS ALONG COLD FRONT WITH EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR
   MULTIPLE MCSS/QLCSS.  WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCES OF HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA
   INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
   THE WIDE...UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.
  
   ...TX...
  
   TSTM POTENTIAL AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MORE UNCERTAIN
   WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO WEAK OR
   NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.  NONETHELESS...MORNING
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SUGGEST THAT STRONG DIABATIC HEATING
   WILL OCCUR TODAY ALONG AND W OF DRYLINE...BOOSTING SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S.  SHOULD SUFFICIENT HEATING/CONVERGENCE
   DEVELOP TO INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS...THE PRESENCE OF MLCAPE VALUES
   OF 3000-4000+ J/KG AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
   OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.  ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP
   WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO
   COOL AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES.