000 WWUS74 KSHV 222106 NPWSHV URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 406 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2011 ...VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077- TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-230400- /O.EXT.KSHV.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-110824T0200Z/ SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE- COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN- UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA- NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE- FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG- HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA- SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE... PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO... SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON... FARMERVILLE...MANSFIELD...COUSHATTA...BIENVILLE...JONESBORO... MONROE...MANY...NATCHITOCHES...WINNFIELD...COLFAX...COLUMBIA... JENA...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT... PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER... JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...HENDERSON... CARTHAGE...NACOGDOCHES...CENTER...LUFKIN...SAN AUGUSTINE... HEMPHILL 406 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2011 ...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY... THE HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY. * TIMING: HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES EARLY THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * IMPACT: THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES WILL BE PRESENT... ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WHO WORK OR PLAY OUTDOORS AND FOR THOSE WHO ARE IN INADEQUATELY COOLED BUILDINGS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER. TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL LOCATION. HEAT STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY...CALL 9 1 1. $$ 15
Monday, August 22, 2011
SHV extends Heat Advisory
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Haboob
A giant wall of dust rolled through the Phoenix area Monday evening turning the sky brown; creating dangerous driving conditions; and delaying some flights. Arabic word هبوب "strong wind or “phenomenon". A Haboob is an intense sand storm observed in arid regions throughout the world and have been observed in the Sahara Desert; Arabian Peninsula; Kuwait; arid regions of Iraq; Africa; and the arid and semiarid regions of North America. In fact any dry land region could experience a Haboob. In the United States they are frequently observed in the deserts of Arizona, as well as New Mexico; and Texas.
Monday, July 18, 2011
Japan Tsunami Highest Measured
The March 11 tsunami that devastated northeastern Japan has been called the highest ever measured in the nation, following detailed study by scores of researchers.
A maximum wave height of 132.5 feet was determined at the Omoeaneyoshi district of Miyako, in the Iwate prefecture of northeastern Honshu, the Telegraph (UK) reported on Monday.
The former wave height record in this tsunami-prone land was 125.3 feet following the Minami Sanriku Earthquake in 1896, according to the report.
For perspective, the Telegraph gave the 130-foot height of the Rio de Janeiro's famous Cristo Redentor (Christ the Redeemer) statue as a reference.
Also, the Statue of Liberty, above the pedestal and foundation, has a height of 151 feet.
Another catastrophic tsunami, that of 2004 in the Indian Ocean, reached at least 108 feet.
The 150 experts, representing 48 research organizations, gathered data from 5,400 locations along Japan's east coast, according to the Telegraph. Tell-tale marks found on trees and buildings were used in determining the wave height.
The devastating Tohoku tsunami followed a magnitude 9.0 great quake that struck beneath the sea floor off northeastern Honshu.
A maximum wave height of 132.5 feet was determined at the Omoeaneyoshi district of Miyako, in the Iwate prefecture of northeastern Honshu, the Telegraph (UK) reported on Monday.
The former wave height record in this tsunami-prone land was 125.3 feet following the Minami Sanriku Earthquake in 1896, according to the report.
For perspective, the Telegraph gave the 130-foot height of the Rio de Janeiro's famous Cristo Redentor (Christ the Redeemer) statue as a reference.
Also, the Statue of Liberty, above the pedestal and foundation, has a height of 151 feet.
Another catastrophic tsunami, that of 2004 in the Indian Ocean, reached at least 108 feet.
The 150 experts, representing 48 research organizations, gathered data from 5,400 locations along Japan's east coast, according to the Telegraph. Tell-tale marks found on trees and buildings were used in determining the wave height.
The devastating Tohoku tsunami followed a magnitude 9.0 great quake that struck beneath the sea floor off northeastern Honshu.
Saturday, July 16, 2011
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
220 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011
...SEVERE AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...WITH SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTH
INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
SYNOPSIS...
THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH. THERE HAS BEEN ONLY LIMITED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN
MORE NUMEROUS IN RECENT DAYS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS AND THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA. MOST LOCALES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE
RECORDED AT LEAST 10 DAYS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED/EXCEEDED 100
DEGREES...WITH TYLER AND LONGVIEW TEXAS HAVING OBSERVED 18 AND 16 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS (RESPECTIVELY) SINCE LATE JUNE WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED/EXCEEDED
THE CENTURY MARK. THIS STREAK IS FAST APPROACHING THE ALL-TIME RECORD OF 20
AND 21 DAYS (RESPECTIVELY) OF CONSECUTIVE NUMBER OF 100+ DEGREE DAYS...WITH
THESE TWO OBSERVING STATIONS ALSO ON TRACK TO SET THE HOTTEST JULYS AND MONTHS
EVER ON RECORD. THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO
COUNTY/PARISHWIDE BURN BANS OVER ALL OF NORTH LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EXCEPT FOR RED RIVER COUNTY TEXAS AND
MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA. WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS
NORTH LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS...WITH A WATER EMERGENCY HAVING BEEN DECLARED
FOR SABINE PARISH IN WESTCENTRAL LOUISIANA...AS MUCH OF THE PARISH DRAWS WATER
FROM TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR...WHICH IS SOME 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL POOL
STAGE. THE CURRENT POOL STAGE IS NO LONGER SUFFICIENT FOR THE WATER PUMPS TO
DRAW WATER FROM TOLEDO BEND INTO THE PARISH...WITH A TOTAL RELIANCE NOW ON
SMALLER WATER WELLS.
MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS THUS FAR THIS JULY HAVE RANGED FROM A PALTRY TENTH
OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
TEXAS...TO UP TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE ACROSS EAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. TOTALS FARTHER EAST IMPROVE ONLY SLIGHTLY...WITH
TWO TO THREE PLUS INCH AMOUNTS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST OF AN EL DORADO
ARKANSAS...TO RUSTON AND NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA LINE. AS A RESULT...A SLOW
DEGRADATION CONTINUES IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT...WITH EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT
CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS...EAST OF A HALLSVILLE...TO
SAN AUGUSTINE LINE...INTO WESTCENTRAL LOUISIANA SOUTH OF A KEITHVILLE...TO
HALL SUMMIT...TO ATLANTA AND COLFAX LINE. EXTREME (D3) AND SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA...AND HAS ALSO SPREAD NORTH INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE OPPRESSIVELY HOT TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND THE EXCESSIVELY HOT TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND WESTERN LOUISIANA HAS NOT IMPROVED THE AGRICULTURAL
CONDITIONS...WITH VERY WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES EVAPORATING OUT WHAT AVAILABLE
SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS. A MINIMUM AMOUNT OF HAY HAS BEEN CUT SO FAR THIS
SEASON...WITH MANY PRODUCERS CULLING HERDS AND SELLING CALVES. OTHER
FARMERS NOT SELLING THEIR LIVESTOCK WERE PROVIDING SUPPLEMENTAL FEED TO THEIR
HERDS. POND AND LAKE LEVELS ALSO CONTINUED TO DROP...AND REMAIN LOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
BURN BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES AND PARISHES IN NORTH
LOUISIANA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS EXCEPT FOR RED RIVER
COUNTY TEXAS AND MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA.
CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS.
MANDATORY WATER RATIONING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH DESOTO...KEATCHIE...
AND SOUTH CLAIBORNE PARISH WATER SYSTEMS IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. MANDATORY WATER RATIONING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CITY OF MANY
LOUISIANA AND FOR MUCH OF SABINE PARISH...AS LEVELS AT TOLEDO BEND LAKE...THE
PARISH'S PRIMARY WATER SUPPLY...HAS FALLEN TO NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE WATER
PUMPS. THE PARISH IS NOW HAVING TO RELY ON SMALLER WELLS THROUGHOUT THE PARISH
FOR THEIR WATER SUPPLY. THE PLEASURE POINT AND THE FOUR WAY WATER SYSTEMS IN
ANGELINA COUNTY TEXAS...REMAIN UNDER A MILD RATIONING OF WATER UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. IN ADDITION...THE MURVAUL (PANOLA COUNTY)...LAKE HARBOR SUBDIVISION
(SMITH COUNTY)...HUXLEY (SHELBY)...MELROSE (NACOGDOCHES)...BLAND LAKE/SAN
AUGUSTINE (SAN AUGUSTINE)...AND HEMPHILL/EL CAMINO BAY/PENDLETON (SABINE
COUNTY) WATER SYSTEMS...HAVE ALSO INSTITUTED RATIONING OF WATER UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO RUN MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION THROUGH MID JULY...ALTHOUGH RECENT RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED FOR
MONTHLY TOTALS TO NEAR OR EXCEED NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST OF AN EL DORADO
ARKANSAS...TO RUSTON AND NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA LINE. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE
JULY MONTHLY RAINFALL...THEIR DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENTAGES OF
NORMAL...FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION:
CITY: JULY 2011 DEPARTURE PERCENTAGE
RAINFALL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL
(THROUGH 7/15/11)
SHREVEPORT LA 0.92 -1.21 43%
SHREVEPORT LA 0.91 -1.22 43%
(SOUTH SHREVEPORT/SOUTHERN HILLS OFFICIAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVING STATION)
MONROE LA 1.39 -0.43 76%
NATCHITOCHES LA 5.26 +3.56 309%
COLUMBIA LA 0.73 -1.26 37%
TEXARKANA AR 0.70 -1.36 34%
EL DORADO AR 1.17 -0.99 54%
HOPE 3NE AR 1.00 -0.96 51%
PRESCOTT 2NNW AR 0.10 -2.26 4%
DEQUEEN AR 0.42 -1.77 19%
MT. PLEASANT TX 0.00 -2.08 0%
TYLER TX 0.05 -1.09 4%
LONGVIEW TX 1.04 -0.67 61%
LUFKIN TX 1.41 +0.09 107%
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS...
MT. HERMAN 0.42 -1.82 19%
BROKEN BOW 0.01 -2.23 0%
IDABEL 0.01 -1.92 1%
THE VERY DRY SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND ONLY SPORADIC RAINFALL THROUGHOUT
THE MONTH HAVE LED TO VERY WARM FOUR INCH SOIL TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS
WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION.
THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED IN THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE MONTH. THIS IS ALSO RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AVERAGE MONTHLY
TEMPERATURES...WITH MANY LOCATIONS RANKING WITHIN THE TOP 5 WARMEST JULYS ON
RECORD. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE JULY MONTHLY TEMPERATURES...THEIR DEPARTURES
FROM NORMAL...AND HOW THEY RANK AS WARMEST JUNES ON RECORD...FOR SELECTED
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION:
CITY: JULY 2011 DEPARTURE RANKING FOR WARMEST
AVG. TEMPERATURE FROM NORMAL JULY ON RECORD
(THROUGH 7/15/11)
SHREVEPORT LA 88.0 +5.2 T2ND
NOTE: CURRENTLY TIED WITH JULY 1884 FOR 2ND WARMEST JULY ON RECORD. 1998
RANKS AS THE WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE
OF 88.5 DEGREES. RECORDS SINCE 1872.
MONROE LA 88.0 +5.0 1ST
NOTE: CURRENTLY RANKED AS THE WARMEST JULY ON RECORD AHEAD OF JULY 1980 WITH
AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 87.2 DEGREES. RECORDS SINCE 1930.
TEXARKANA AR 87.6 +5.3 2ND
NOTE: JULY 1980 RANKS AS THE WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE MONTHLY
TEMPERATURE OF 88.0 DEGREES. RECORDS SINCE 1892.
EL DORADO AR 85.9 +4.3 5TH
NOTE: CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 5TH WARMEST JULY ON RECORD BEHIND 1930
(87.1 DEGREES), 1998 (86.5 DEGREES), 1934 AND 1954 (86.0 DEGREES).
RECORDS SINCE 1905.
DEQUEEN AR 85.7 +5.3 4TH
NOTE: CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 4TH WARMEST JULY ON RECORD BEHIND 1998
(86.9 DEGREES), 1954 (86.4 DEGREES), AND 1978 (86.2 DEGREES). RECORDS
SINCE 1936.
TYLER TX 90.8 +8.0 1ST
NOTE: CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE WARMEST JULY AND MONTH EVER ON RECORD, AHEAD OF
JULY 1998 (89.7 DEGREES). RECORDS SINCE 1896.
LONGVIEW TX 89.8 +6.8 1ST
NOTE: CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE WARMEST JULY AND MONTH EVER ON RECORD, AHEAD OF
JULY 1998 (89.4 DEGREES). RECORDS SINCE 1902.
LUFKIN TX 87.5 +5.3 2ND
NOTE: CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 2ND WARMEST JULY ON RECORD, BEHIND 1998
(87.7 DEGREES). RECORDS SINCE 1949.
THE LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS CONTINUE TO INCREASE GIVEN THE MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS SUMMER.
DROUGHT DETERIORATION HAS NOW SPREAD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH MOST AREAS ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS RECORDING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS UP TO
A HALF INCH FOR THE MONTH. BELOW IS A LIST OF RAINFALL TOTALS FROM MARCH 2010
THROUGH MID JULY...THEIR DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...AND THEIR PERCENTAGES OF
NORMAL...FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION:
CITY: MARCH '10 - JULY '11 DEPARTURE PERCENTAGE
(THROUGH 7/15/11) FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL
SHREVEPORT LA 42.26 -29.84 59%
SHREVEPORT LA 42.93 -29.17 60%
(SOUTH SHREVEPORT/SOUTHERN HILLS OFFICIAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVING STATION)
MONROE LA 64.09 -5.26 92%
NATCHITOCHES LA 45.98 -27.47 63%
COLUMBIA LA 44.38 -40.31 52%
TEXARKANA AR 41.84 -23.88 64%
EL DORADO AR 43.38 -33.26 57%
HOPE 3NE AR 49.30 -27.19 64%
PRESCOTT 2NNW AR 51.00 -26.23 66%
DEQUEEN AR 46.89 -29.69 61%
MT. PLEASANT TX 39.62 -25.32 61%
TYLER TX 38.75 -23.43 62%
LONGVIEW TX 36.84 -31.90 54%
LUFKIN TX 43.10 -20.97 67%
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS...
MT. HERMAN 55.87 -22.87 71%
BROKEN BOW 61.72 -17.02 78%
IDABEL 50.73 -21.43 70%
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE AT LEAST
THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NATION'S MIDSECTION THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
WEAKNESSES LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL YIELD WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND AND MONDAY ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20...WITH ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO NEAR/EXCEED 100 DEGREES
EACH DAY.
THE THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER...ISSUED
BY CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...INDICATES GREATER PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL/NORMAL/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY INDICATED OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE
THREE MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SEPTEMBER INDICATES EQUAL
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL/NORMAL/BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS
ALL OF THE FOUR STATE REGION.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
POOL STAGES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL...GIVEN THE EXCESSIVELY HOT
TEMPERATURES...INCREASED EVAPORATION...AND LACK OF RAINFALL ACROSS THESE
WATERSHEDS. POOL STAGES HAVE FALLEN TO SOME TWO TO THREE FEET BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH CONTINUED DETERIORATION NOTED ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND
NORTH LOUISIANA. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN
GRADUALLY FALLING RESERVOIR LEVELS...WITH LAKE TAWAKONI...LAKE FORK...MARTIN
LAKE...LAKE NACOGDOCHES...LAKE TYLER...SAM RAYBURN LAKE...AND TOLEDO BEND
REMAINING SOME FOUR TO TEN FEET BELOW NORMAL. A GRADUAL DETERIORATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY EARLY AUGUST.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
220 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011
...SEVERE AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...WITH SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTH
INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
SYNOPSIS...
THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH. THERE HAS BEEN ONLY LIMITED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN
MORE NUMEROUS IN RECENT DAYS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS AND THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA. MOST LOCALES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE
RECORDED AT LEAST 10 DAYS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED/EXCEEDED 100
DEGREES...WITH TYLER AND LONGVIEW TEXAS HAVING OBSERVED 18 AND 16 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS (RESPECTIVELY) SINCE LATE JUNE WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED/EXCEEDED
THE CENTURY MARK. THIS STREAK IS FAST APPROACHING THE ALL-TIME RECORD OF 20
AND 21 DAYS (RESPECTIVELY) OF CONSECUTIVE NUMBER OF 100+ DEGREE DAYS...WITH
THESE TWO OBSERVING STATIONS ALSO ON TRACK TO SET THE HOTTEST JULYS AND MONTHS
EVER ON RECORD. THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO
COUNTY/PARISHWIDE BURN BANS OVER ALL OF NORTH LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EXCEPT FOR RED RIVER COUNTY TEXAS AND
MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA. WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS
NORTH LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS...WITH A WATER EMERGENCY HAVING BEEN DECLARED
FOR SABINE PARISH IN WESTCENTRAL LOUISIANA...AS MUCH OF THE PARISH DRAWS WATER
FROM TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR...WHICH IS SOME 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL POOL
STAGE. THE CURRENT POOL STAGE IS NO LONGER SUFFICIENT FOR THE WATER PUMPS TO
DRAW WATER FROM TOLEDO BEND INTO THE PARISH...WITH A TOTAL RELIANCE NOW ON
SMALLER WATER WELLS.
MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS THUS FAR THIS JULY HAVE RANGED FROM A PALTRY TENTH
OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
TEXAS...TO UP TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE ACROSS EAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. TOTALS FARTHER EAST IMPROVE ONLY SLIGHTLY...WITH
TWO TO THREE PLUS INCH AMOUNTS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST OF AN EL DORADO
ARKANSAS...TO RUSTON AND NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA LINE. AS A RESULT...A SLOW
DEGRADATION CONTINUES IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT...WITH EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT
CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS...EAST OF A HALLSVILLE...TO
SAN AUGUSTINE LINE...INTO WESTCENTRAL LOUISIANA SOUTH OF A KEITHVILLE...TO
HALL SUMMIT...TO ATLANTA AND COLFAX LINE. EXTREME (D3) AND SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA...AND HAS ALSO SPREAD NORTH INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE OPPRESSIVELY HOT TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND THE EXCESSIVELY HOT TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND WESTERN LOUISIANA HAS NOT IMPROVED THE AGRICULTURAL
CONDITIONS...WITH VERY WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES EVAPORATING OUT WHAT AVAILABLE
SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS. A MINIMUM AMOUNT OF HAY HAS BEEN CUT SO FAR THIS
SEASON...WITH MANY PRODUCERS CULLING HERDS AND SELLING CALVES. OTHER
FARMERS NOT SELLING THEIR LIVESTOCK WERE PROVIDING SUPPLEMENTAL FEED TO THEIR
HERDS. POND AND LAKE LEVELS ALSO CONTINUED TO DROP...AND REMAIN LOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
BURN BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES AND PARISHES IN NORTH
LOUISIANA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS EXCEPT FOR RED RIVER
COUNTY TEXAS AND MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA.
CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS.
MANDATORY WATER RATIONING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH DESOTO...KEATCHIE...
AND SOUTH CLAIBORNE PARISH WATER SYSTEMS IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. MANDATORY WATER RATIONING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CITY OF MANY
LOUISIANA AND FOR MUCH OF SABINE PARISH...AS LEVELS AT TOLEDO BEND LAKE...THE
PARISH'S PRIMARY WATER SUPPLY...HAS FALLEN TO NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE WATER
PUMPS. THE PARISH IS NOW HAVING TO RELY ON SMALLER WELLS THROUGHOUT THE PARISH
FOR THEIR WATER SUPPLY. THE PLEASURE POINT AND THE FOUR WAY WATER SYSTEMS IN
ANGELINA COUNTY TEXAS...REMAIN UNDER A MILD RATIONING OF WATER UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. IN ADDITION...THE MURVAUL (PANOLA COUNTY)...LAKE HARBOR SUBDIVISION
(SMITH COUNTY)...HUXLEY (SHELBY)...MELROSE (NACOGDOCHES)...BLAND LAKE/SAN
AUGUSTINE (SAN AUGUSTINE)...AND HEMPHILL/EL CAMINO BAY/PENDLETON (SABINE
COUNTY) WATER SYSTEMS...HAVE ALSO INSTITUTED RATIONING OF WATER UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO RUN MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION THROUGH MID JULY...ALTHOUGH RECENT RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED FOR
MONTHLY TOTALS TO NEAR OR EXCEED NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST OF AN EL DORADO
ARKANSAS...TO RUSTON AND NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA LINE. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE
JULY MONTHLY RAINFALL...THEIR DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENTAGES OF
NORMAL...FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION:
CITY: JULY 2011 DEPARTURE PERCENTAGE
RAINFALL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL
(THROUGH 7/15/11)
SHREVEPORT LA 0.92 -1.21 43%
SHREVEPORT LA 0.91 -1.22 43%
(SOUTH SHREVEPORT/SOUTHERN HILLS OFFICIAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVING STATION)
MONROE LA 1.39 -0.43 76%
NATCHITOCHES LA 5.26 +3.56 309%
COLUMBIA LA 0.73 -1.26 37%
TEXARKANA AR 0.70 -1.36 34%
EL DORADO AR 1.17 -0.99 54%
HOPE 3NE AR 1.00 -0.96 51%
PRESCOTT 2NNW AR 0.10 -2.26 4%
DEQUEEN AR 0.42 -1.77 19%
MT. PLEASANT TX 0.00 -2.08 0%
TYLER TX 0.05 -1.09 4%
LONGVIEW TX 1.04 -0.67 61%
LUFKIN TX 1.41 +0.09 107%
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS...
MT. HERMAN 0.42 -1.82 19%
BROKEN BOW 0.01 -2.23 0%
IDABEL 0.01 -1.92 1%
THE VERY DRY SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND ONLY SPORADIC RAINFALL THROUGHOUT
THE MONTH HAVE LED TO VERY WARM FOUR INCH SOIL TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS
WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION.
THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED IN THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE MONTH. THIS IS ALSO RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AVERAGE MONTHLY
TEMPERATURES...WITH MANY LOCATIONS RANKING WITHIN THE TOP 5 WARMEST JULYS ON
RECORD. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE JULY MONTHLY TEMPERATURES...THEIR DEPARTURES
FROM NORMAL...AND HOW THEY RANK AS WARMEST JUNES ON RECORD...FOR SELECTED
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION:
CITY: JULY 2011 DEPARTURE RANKING FOR WARMEST
AVG. TEMPERATURE FROM NORMAL JULY ON RECORD
(THROUGH 7/15/11)
SHREVEPORT LA 88.0 +5.2 T2ND
NOTE: CURRENTLY TIED WITH JULY 1884 FOR 2ND WARMEST JULY ON RECORD. 1998
RANKS AS THE WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE
OF 88.5 DEGREES. RECORDS SINCE 1872.
MONROE LA 88.0 +5.0 1ST
NOTE: CURRENTLY RANKED AS THE WARMEST JULY ON RECORD AHEAD OF JULY 1980 WITH
AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 87.2 DEGREES. RECORDS SINCE 1930.
TEXARKANA AR 87.6 +5.3 2ND
NOTE: JULY 1980 RANKS AS THE WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE MONTHLY
TEMPERATURE OF 88.0 DEGREES. RECORDS SINCE 1892.
EL DORADO AR 85.9 +4.3 5TH
NOTE: CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 5TH WARMEST JULY ON RECORD BEHIND 1930
(87.1 DEGREES), 1998 (86.5 DEGREES), 1934 AND 1954 (86.0 DEGREES).
RECORDS SINCE 1905.
DEQUEEN AR 85.7 +5.3 4TH
NOTE: CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 4TH WARMEST JULY ON RECORD BEHIND 1998
(86.9 DEGREES), 1954 (86.4 DEGREES), AND 1978 (86.2 DEGREES). RECORDS
SINCE 1936.
TYLER TX 90.8 +8.0 1ST
NOTE: CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE WARMEST JULY AND MONTH EVER ON RECORD, AHEAD OF
JULY 1998 (89.7 DEGREES). RECORDS SINCE 1896.
LONGVIEW TX 89.8 +6.8 1ST
NOTE: CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE WARMEST JULY AND MONTH EVER ON RECORD, AHEAD OF
JULY 1998 (89.4 DEGREES). RECORDS SINCE 1902.
LUFKIN TX 87.5 +5.3 2ND
NOTE: CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 2ND WARMEST JULY ON RECORD, BEHIND 1998
(87.7 DEGREES). RECORDS SINCE 1949.
THE LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS CONTINUE TO INCREASE GIVEN THE MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS SUMMER.
DROUGHT DETERIORATION HAS NOW SPREAD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH MOST AREAS ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS RECORDING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS UP TO
A HALF INCH FOR THE MONTH. BELOW IS A LIST OF RAINFALL TOTALS FROM MARCH 2010
THROUGH MID JULY...THEIR DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...AND THEIR PERCENTAGES OF
NORMAL...FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION:
CITY: MARCH '10 - JULY '11 DEPARTURE PERCENTAGE
(THROUGH 7/15/11) FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL
SHREVEPORT LA 42.26 -29.84 59%
SHREVEPORT LA 42.93 -29.17 60%
(SOUTH SHREVEPORT/SOUTHERN HILLS OFFICIAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVING STATION)
MONROE LA 64.09 -5.26 92%
NATCHITOCHES LA 45.98 -27.47 63%
COLUMBIA LA 44.38 -40.31 52%
TEXARKANA AR 41.84 -23.88 64%
EL DORADO AR 43.38 -33.26 57%
HOPE 3NE AR 49.30 -27.19 64%
PRESCOTT 2NNW AR 51.00 -26.23 66%
DEQUEEN AR 46.89 -29.69 61%
MT. PLEASANT TX 39.62 -25.32 61%
TYLER TX 38.75 -23.43 62%
LONGVIEW TX 36.84 -31.90 54%
LUFKIN TX 43.10 -20.97 67%
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS...
MT. HERMAN 55.87 -22.87 71%
BROKEN BOW 61.72 -17.02 78%
IDABEL 50.73 -21.43 70%
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE AT LEAST
THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NATION'S MIDSECTION THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
WEAKNESSES LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL YIELD WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND AND MONDAY ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20...WITH ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO NEAR/EXCEED 100 DEGREES
EACH DAY.
THE THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER...ISSUED
BY CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...INDICATES GREATER PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL/NORMAL/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY INDICATED OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE
THREE MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SEPTEMBER INDICATES EQUAL
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL/NORMAL/BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS
ALL OF THE FOUR STATE REGION.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
POOL STAGES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL...GIVEN THE EXCESSIVELY HOT
TEMPERATURES...INCREASED EVAPORATION...AND LACK OF RAINFALL ACROSS THESE
WATERSHEDS. POOL STAGES HAVE FALLEN TO SOME TWO TO THREE FEET BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH CONTINUED DETERIORATION NOTED ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND
NORTH LOUISIANA. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN
GRADUALLY FALLING RESERVOIR LEVELS...WITH LAKE TAWAKONI...LAKE FORK...MARTIN
LAKE...LAKE NACOGDOCHES...LAKE TYLER...SAM RAYBURN LAKE...AND TOLEDO BEND
REMAINING SOME FOUR TO TEN FEET BELOW NORMAL. A GRADUAL DETERIORATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY EARLY AUGUST.
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
First Day of Hurricane Season
000
ABNT20 KNHC 011138
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.
THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF
NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 11...6...AND
2...RESPECTIVELY.
THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2011 IS AS FOLLOWS:
NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ARLENE AR LEEN- LEE LEE
BRET BRET MARIA MUH REE- UH
CINDY SIN- DEE NATE NAIT
DON DAHN OPHELIA O FEEL- YA
EMILY EH- MIH LEE PHILIPPE FEE LEEP-
FRANKLIN FRANK- LIN RINA REE- NUH
GERT GERT SEAN SHAWN
HARVEY HAR- VEE TAMMY TAM- EE
IRENE EYE REEN- VINCE VINSS
JOSE HO ZAY- WHITNEY WHIT- NEE
KATIA KA TEE- AH
THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT.
AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES
ARE 1 AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM EST.
A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE UPDATES
...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED ISSUANCES OF
THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS
WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE REGULAR
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.
A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUAT1-5.
ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT
UPDATES BY EMAIL AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML...IN ALL LOWER
CASE. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER.GOV.
ABNT20 KNHC 011138
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.
THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF
NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 11...6...AND
2...RESPECTIVELY.
THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2011 IS AS FOLLOWS:
NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ARLENE AR LEEN- LEE LEE
BRET BRET MARIA MUH REE- UH
CINDY SIN- DEE NATE NAIT
DON DAHN OPHELIA O FEEL- YA
EMILY EH- MIH LEE PHILIPPE FEE LEEP-
FRANKLIN FRANK- LIN RINA REE- NUH
GERT GERT SEAN SHAWN
HARVEY HAR- VEE TAMMY TAM- EE
IRENE EYE REEN- VINCE VINSS
JOSE HO ZAY- WHITNEY WHIT- NEE
KATIA KA TEE- AH
THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT.
AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES
ARE 1 AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM EST.
A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE UPDATES
...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED ISSUANCES OF
THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS
WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE REGULAR
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.
A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUAT1-5.
ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT
UPDATES BY EMAIL AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML...IN ALL LOWER
CASE. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER.GOV.
Monday, May 23, 2011
National Hurricane Center’s WX4NHC Schedules On-The-Air Station Test
The annual WX4NHC On-the-Air Station Test from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami will take place Saturday, June 4, 1300-2100 UTC (9 AM – 5 PM EDT). “The purpose of this annual station test is to test all of our radio equipment, computers and antennas using as many modes and frequencies as possible in preparation for this year’s hurricane season,” said WX4NHC Assistant Amateur Radio Volunteer Coordinator Julio Ripoll, WD4R. “This is not a contest or simulated hurricane exercise.”
WX4NHC will be on the air on HF, VHF and UHF, plus 2 and 30 meter APRS. Suggested SSB frequencies are 3.950, 7.268, 14.325, 21.325 and 28.525 MHz, +/-QRM. Ripoll said that WX4NHC will mostly be on 14.325 MHz, but will make announcements when the station changes frequencies. WX4NHC also will be on the VoIP Hurricane Net 1700-1900 UTC (IRLP node 9219/EchoLink WX-TALK Conference) and on South Florida area VHF/UHF repeaters and simplex. Stations looking to participate in the annual station test may be able WX4NHC on HF by using one of the DX spotting networks, such as the DX Summit website.
Stations working WX4NHC exchange call sign, signal report, location and name, plus a brief weather report, such as “sunny,” “rain” or “cloudy.” Non-hams may submit their actual weather using the On-Line Hurricane Report Form. QSL cards will be available. QSL via WD4R and include a self-addressed, stamped envelope. Do not send cards to the NHC. Due to security measures, no visitors will be allowed at NHC during the test.
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season begins Wednesday, June 1 and goes through November 30. According to the NHC, forecasters are calling for an “above average” hurricane season this year.
WX4NHC will be on the air on HF, VHF and UHF, plus 2 and 30 meter APRS. Suggested SSB frequencies are 3.950, 7.268, 14.325, 21.325 and 28.525 MHz, +/-QRM. Ripoll said that WX4NHC will mostly be on 14.325 MHz, but will make announcements when the station changes frequencies. WX4NHC also will be on the VoIP Hurricane Net 1700-1900 UTC (IRLP node 9219/EchoLink WX-TALK Conference) and on South Florida area VHF/UHF repeaters and simplex. Stations looking to participate in the annual station test may be able WX4NHC on HF by using one of the DX spotting networks, such as the DX Summit website.
Stations working WX4NHC exchange call sign, signal report, location and name, plus a brief weather report, such as “sunny,” “rain” or “cloudy.” Non-hams may submit their actual weather using the On-Line Hurricane Report Form. QSL cards will be available. QSL via WD4R and include a self-addressed, stamped envelope. Do not send cards to the NHC. Due to security measures, no visitors will be allowed at NHC during the test.
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season begins Wednesday, June 1 and goes through November 30. According to the NHC, forecasters are calling for an “above average” hurricane season this year.
2011 tornado information
Preliminary tornado statistics including records set in 2011
May 2011- The May 22, Joplin, Missouri tornado, with an estimated 89 fatalities, is the highest death toll from a single tornado since the 1953 tornado that hit Worcester, Mass., which caused 90 fatalities on June 9, 1953.
NOAA satellite shows storm system moments before spawning tornado in Joplin, Mo.
(Credit: NOAA)
- If the fatalities exceed 90, the Joplin tornado will become the deadliest since Flint, Michigan (116 fatalities - June 8, 1953).
- National Weather Service's (NWS) preliminary estimate is more than 100 tornadoes have occurred during the month of May 2011.
The record number of tornadoes during the month of May was 542 tornadoes set in May 2003.
The average number of tornadoes for the month of May during the past decade is 298.Deadliest Tornado Years in US History
(Official NOAA-NWS Record: 1950 - present; Research by Grazulis: 1875-1949)1925 794 1936 552 1917 551 1927 540 1896 537 1953 519 1920 499 1908 477 2011 454 (365 + 89 estimated Joplin fatalities as of May 23) 1909 404 1932 394 1942 384 1924 376 1974 366 1933 362
- May is historically the most active month for tornadoes. 2011 Year-to-Date (and record annual) Statistics
- NWS’s preliminary estimate is that there have been approximately 1,000 tornadoes so far this year.
- The previous yearly record number of tornadoes was set in 2004 with 1,817.
- The overall yearly average number of tornadoes for the past decade is 1,274.
- The preliminary estimated number of tornado fatalities so far this year is 454. NWS records indicate that there were 365 tornado fatalities before the Joplin tornado. Media reports currently indicate 89 fatalities in the Joplin event.
- The US tornado death toll is the highest ever through the month of May in the NOAA-NWS official record (1950-present).
- The highest recorded annual death toll from tornadoes in the NOAA-NWS official record (1950-present) was set in 1953 with 519 fatalities.
- April 2011 set a new record for the month with 875 tornadoes.
- The previous record was set in April 1974 with 267 tornadoes.
- The average number of tornadoes for the month of April during the past decade is 161.
- The previous record number of tornadoes during any month was 542 tornadoes set in May 2003.
- NWS records indicate 321 people were killed during the April 25-28 tornado outbreak.
- NWS records indicate 361 people were killed during the entire month of April 2011
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Day 3 Oulook
The Storm Prediction Center has portions of the Ark-La-Tex under a slight risk of severe weather some of the areas include counties in the NEBAR Repeater coverage area. Counties in the NEBAR Repeater Coverage area that are in the risk area are: McCurtain; Morris; and Red River County. It is important to remember this is still 3 days away and the risk area could be shifted further east or completely removed in later outlooks.Here is the current Day 3 Convective Outlook Text from the Storm Prediction Center.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTH TX TO SERN NEB/SWRN
IA...
...CNTRL TX TO SERN NEB/SWRN IA...
GFS/NAM SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS FRIDAY INDUCING WEAK HEIGHT FALLS FROM
NRN TX INTO SRN NEB. AT THE SFC...LEE TROUGH/FRONT WILL BE
DISPLACED EWD TO A LONGITUDE NEAR 100W BY 21/00Z. WITH WARM SECTOR
DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 60S TO PERHAPS NEAR 70
ACROSS TX IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR ROBUST
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MS
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES WHERE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE. BOTH
THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE WELL EAST OF
THIS BOUNDARY DUE PARTLY TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL INFLUENCE MORE
DIURNAL CONVECTION FARTHER WEST ALONG THE FRONT AS SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP COULD REDUCE INSTABILITY FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE.
EVEN SO...SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION OF THE PLAINS WITH 50KT+ SPEEDS EXPECTED FOR
FRONTAL CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...MULTI-FACETED STORM
MODE/EVOLUTION IS LIKELY WITH NUMEROUS WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS LIKELY.
IA...
...CNTRL TX TO SERN NEB/SWRN IA...
GFS/NAM SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS FRIDAY INDUCING WEAK HEIGHT FALLS FROM
NRN TX INTO SRN NEB. AT THE SFC...LEE TROUGH/FRONT WILL BE
DISPLACED EWD TO A LONGITUDE NEAR 100W BY 21/00Z. WITH WARM SECTOR
DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 60S TO PERHAPS NEAR 70
ACROSS TX IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR ROBUST
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MS
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES WHERE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE. BOTH
THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE WELL EAST OF
THIS BOUNDARY DUE PARTLY TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL INFLUENCE MORE
DIURNAL CONVECTION FARTHER WEST ALONG THE FRONT AS SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP COULD REDUCE INSTABILITY FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE.
EVEN SO...SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION OF THE PLAINS WITH 50KT+ SPEEDS EXPECTED FOR
FRONTAL CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...MULTI-FACETED STORM
MODE/EVOLUTION IS LIKELY WITH NUMEROUS WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS LIKELY.
Monday, May 9, 2011
Drought Information Statement
000
AXUS74 KSHV 092121
DGTSHV
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-101200-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
420 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2011
...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL DURING LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
BUT EXTREME AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...
SYNOPSIS...
MUCH OF APRIL WAS CHARACTERIZED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN...UNTIL A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INITIATED A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE FINAL TEN DAYS OF APRIL...WHICH LINGERED INTO
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF MAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF FIVE TO TEN
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING TWELVE INCHES...WERE RECORDED ACROSS
THESE AREAS...WHICH EITHER ELIMINATED OR SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THIS EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ALSO PRODUCED MINOR FLOODING
ACROSS THE SULPHUR RIVER OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...AS WELL AS THE OUACHITA RIVER
BASIN OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. MINOR FLOODING WAS ALSO OBSERVED
ALONG THE GLOVER AND LITTLE RIVERS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS WERE ALSO A RESULT ALONG THE RED
RIVER AND LOWER OUACHITA RIVERS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH
POINTS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEAR OR JUST HAVING RECENTLY CRESTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA
OBSERVED MUCH LOWER CUMULATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES. AS A RESULT...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WESTCENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AS EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED GENERALLY
ALONG THE LOWER SABINE RIVER AND TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY. HERE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WERE ONLY SOME 25-50% OF NORMAL...WITH WHAT IS USUALLY THE WETTEST PERIOD OF
THE YEAR. EXTREME (D3) AND SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ELSEWHERE
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT
OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST
OF A RUSTON...TO JONESBORO...TO RICHWOOD LOUISIANA LINE...WHERE EXCESSIVELY
HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO FELL DURING THE 26TH-27TH OF APRIL.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL...AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPERIENCED DURING APRIL AND THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY HAS MAINTAINED
VERY DRY SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND MUCH OF NORTH
LOUISIANA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HOWEVER...MUCH IMPROVEMENT
WAS OBSERVED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD FIVE TO TEN INCHES OF RAIN
THAT FELL THROUGHOUT APRIL AND EARLY MAY. WHEREAS WET SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS
HAS GREENED VEGETATION...ELIMINATED THE BURN BANS...AND REDUCED THE FIRE
DANGER ACROSS THESE AREAS...THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE CONTINUATION OF
LOW LAKE AND POND LEVELS...WITH MANY PASTURES STILL VERY DRY.
THUS...PRODUCERS ARE STILL PROVIDING SUPPLEMENTAL FEED TO THEIR LIVESTOCK.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR RUSK...PANOLA...NACOGDOCHES...SHELBY...
ANGELINA...SAN AUGUSTINE...AND SABINE COUNTIES IN EASTERN TEXAS. BURN BANS
ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR DESOTO...RED RIVER...SABINE...AND NATCHITOCHES PARISHES
IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. FIRE DANGER REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS.
THE PLEASURE POINT WATER SYSTEM IN ANGELINA COUNTY TEXAS REMAINS
UNDER A MILD RATIONING OF WATER UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED THROUGH MUCH OF APRIL HAVE BEGUN TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. IN FACT...MOST LOCALES
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA EXPERIENCED ONE OF THE WARMEST APRILS
ON RECORD. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE APRIL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...THEIR
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...AND HOW THEY RANKED AS WARMEST APRILS ON RECORD...FOR
SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION:
CITY: APRIL 2011 DEPARTURE
AVG TEMP. FROM NORMAL
SHREVEPORT LA 70.8 +5.6
NOTE: APRIL RANKS AS THE 5TH WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD, BEHIND 1967, 1930, 2006,
AND 1925. RECORDS SINCE 1872.
SHREVEPORT LA 69.5 +4.3
(SOUTH SHREVEPORT/SOUTHERN HILLS OFFICIAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVING STATION)
NOTE: APRIL RANKS AS THE THIRD WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD, TIED WITH 2006.
RECORDS SINCE 1980.
MONROE LA 71.0 +5.1
NOTE: APRIL RANKS AS THE 2ND WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD, BEHIND 1981. RECORDS
SINCE 1930.
TEXARKANA AR 67.1 +2.8
NOTE: APRIL TIES AS THE 17TH WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1892.
EL DORADO AR 66.4 +2.7
DEQUEEN AR 63.5 +3.1
TYLER TX 72.1 +5.5
NOTE: APRIL RANKS AS THE 3RD WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD, BEHIND 1930 AND 1925.
RECORDS SINCE 1896.
LONGVIEW TX 71.6 +6.2
NOTE: APRIL RANKS AS THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1902.
LUFKIN TX 72.0 +5.8
NOTE: APRIL RANKS AS THE 2ND WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD, BEHIND 1967. RECORDS
SINCE 1949.
A DISTINCT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE
MONTH OF APRIL...WITH WIDESPREAD SIX TO TEN INCHES OF RAIN RECORDED...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWELVE INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF MCCURTAIN
COUNTY OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. BELOW IS A LIST
OF THE APRIL MONTHLY RAINFALL...THEIR DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENTAGES
OF NORMAL...FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION:
CITY: APRIL 2011 DEPARTURE PERCENTAGE
RAINFALL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL
SHREVEPORT LA 2.85 -1.57 64%
SHREVEPORT LA 4.63 +0.21 105%
(SOUTH SHREVEPORT/SOUTHERN HILLS OFFICIAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVING STATION)
MONROE LA 11.84 +7.07 248%
NOTE: THIS WAS THE 2ND WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1930.
NATCHITOCHES LA 2.30 -2.22 51%
COLUMBIA LA 3.90 -2.06 65%
TEXARKANA AR 5.94 +1.99 150%
EL DORADO AR 8.29 +3.74 182%
NOTE: THIS WAS THE 17TH WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1905.
HOPE 3NE AR 9.68 +4.79 198%
NOTE: THIS WAS THE 9TH WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1915.
PRESCOTT 2NNW AR 11.93 +6.96 26%
NOTE: THIS WAS THE 4TH WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD BEHIND 1966, 1973, AND 1957.
RECORDS SINCE 1896.
DEQUEEN AR 11.64 +6.79 255%
NOTE: THIS WAS THE 3RD WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD BEHIND 1957 AND 1986.
RECORDS SINCE 1936.
MT. PLEASANT TX 3.46 -0.31 92%
TYLER TX 3.25 -0.45 88%
LONGVIEW TX 3.07 -0.85 78%
LUFKIN TX 1.55 -1.58 50%
NOTE: THIS WAS THE 15TH DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1949.
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS...
MT. HERMAN 7.43 +2.89 164%
BROKEN BOW 12.25 +7.71 270%
IDABEL 7.62 +3.28 176%
PLENTIFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SIX TO IN EXCESS OF TWELVE INCHES ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
DURING APRIL HAS SIGNIFICANTLY EATEN AWAY AT THE LONG TERM RAINFALL
DEFICITS SINCE THE DROUGHT BEGAN OVER A YEAR AGO. HOWEVER...LITTLE CHANGE
WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITH THE LONG TERM DEFICITS...WITH SEVERE...EXTREME...
AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TEXAS
AND NORTH LOUISIANA. THESE AREAS ON AVERAGE HAVE SEEN ONLY 55-65% OF THEIR
NORMAL RAINFALL SINCE THE DROUGHT BEGAN IN MARCH 2010. BELOW IS A LIST OF
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM MARCH 2010 THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY 2011...THEIR
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...AND THEIR PERCENTAGES OF NORMAL...FOR SELECTED
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION:
CITY: MARCH `10 - MAY `11 DEPARTURE PERCENTAGE
(THROUGH 5/7/11) FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL
SHREVEPORT LA 36.88 -24.23 60%
SHREVEPORT LA 36.96 -24.15 60%
(SOUTH SHREVEPORT/SOUTHERN HILLS OFFICIAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVING STATION)
MONROE LA 59.15 -0.36 99%
NATCHITOCHES LA 34.25 -28.41 55%
COLUMBIA LA 39.73 -33.57 54%
TEXARKANA AR 37.04 -18.64 67%
EL DORADO AR 39.87 -25.11 61%
HOPE 3NE AR 44.07 -21.94 67%
PRESCOTT 2NNW AR 48.17 -18.05 73%
DEQUEEN AR 44.02 -20.92 68%
MT. PLEASANT TX 36.57 -17.41 68%
TYLER TX 36.10 -17.80 67%
LONGVIEW TX 31.17 -26.92 54%
LUFKIN TX 34.64 -19.70 64%
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS...
MT. HERMAN 50.25 -16.45 75%
BROKEN BOW 57.63 -9.07 86%
IDABEL 45.11 -16.09 74%
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST WEDNESDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SLOWLY EJECT NORTHEAST OUT INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER EAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY...AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO COOL TEMPERATURES BEFORE IT WASHES OUT
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SERIES OF SYSTEMS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR.
THE THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MAY-JUNE-JULY...ISSUED BY
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...INDICATES GREATER PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. EQUAL
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL/NORMAL/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
INDICATED OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE THREE MONTH
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THROUGH JULY INDICATES GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL/NORMAL/BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL ARE CURRENTLY INDICATED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS...NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES OF POOL
STAGES AND RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING LATE APRIL AND EARLY
MAY. IN FACT...RESERVOIRS HERE HAVE RISEN TO SOME TWO TO FIVE FEET ABOVE
NORMAL POOL STAGE...WITH BROKEN BOW LAKE...DEQUEEN LAKE...GILLHAM LAKE...AND
DIERKS LAKE RISING SOME TWELVE TO TWENTY FIVE FEET ABOVE NORMAL POOL STAGE
GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUNDS AND EXTENSIVE RUNOFF. MEANWHILE...BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS
DURING APRIL HAS RESULTED IN LOWER THAN NORMAL POOL STAGES ACROSS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS...WITH RESERVOIRS SUCH AS LAKE TAWAKONI...LAKE FORK...MARTIN
LAKE...LAKE NACOGDOCHES...AND SAM RAYBURN LAKE REMAINING SOME THREE TO SEVEN
FEET BELOW NORMAL. MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
ALONG THE SULPHUR RIVER IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND THROUGH MUCH OF MAY/EARLY
JUNE ALONG THE OUACHITA RIVER IN SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS. FLOWS ALONG THE RED
RIVER IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA WILL ALSO REMAIN
ABNORMALLY HIGH THROUGH THE THIRD WEEK OF MAY...AS CONSIDERABLE RUNOFF AND
RESERVOIR RELEASES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
CONTINUE TO ROUTE DOWNSTREAM.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY EARLY JUNE.
&&
RELATED WEB SITES...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT HOMEPAGE: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SHV
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM: WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR: WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER: WWW.DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
LA OFFICE OF STATE CLIMATOLOGY: WWW.LOSC.LSU.EDU
TX OFFICE OF STATE CLIMATOLOGY: WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC
OK CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY: HTTP://CLIMATE.OK.GOV
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY: HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV
TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURAL COMMUNICATIONS-AGNEWS: HTTP://AGNEWS.TAMU.EDU
LA DEPT. OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY: HTTP://WWW.LDAF.STATE.LA.US/
TEXAS FOREST SERVICE: HTTP://TEXASFORESTSERVICE.TAMU.EDU
ARKANSAS FIRE INFO: HTTP://WWW.ARKFIREINFO.ORG
OKLAHOMA FORESTRY SERVICES: HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.OK.GOV/WILDLAND-FIRE
LSU AG CENTER: HTTP://WWW.LSUAGCENTER.COM
AXUS74 KSHV 092121
DGTSHV
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-101200-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
420 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2011
...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL DURING LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
BUT EXTREME AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...
SYNOPSIS...
MUCH OF APRIL WAS CHARACTERIZED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN...UNTIL A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INITIATED A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE FINAL TEN DAYS OF APRIL...WHICH LINGERED INTO
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF MAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF FIVE TO TEN
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING TWELVE INCHES...WERE RECORDED ACROSS
THESE AREAS...WHICH EITHER ELIMINATED OR SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THIS EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ALSO PRODUCED MINOR FLOODING
ACROSS THE SULPHUR RIVER OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...AS WELL AS THE OUACHITA RIVER
BASIN OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. MINOR FLOODING WAS ALSO OBSERVED
ALONG THE GLOVER AND LITTLE RIVERS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS WERE ALSO A RESULT ALONG THE RED
RIVER AND LOWER OUACHITA RIVERS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH
POINTS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEAR OR JUST HAVING RECENTLY CRESTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA
OBSERVED MUCH LOWER CUMULATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES. AS A RESULT...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WESTCENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AS EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED GENERALLY
ALONG THE LOWER SABINE RIVER AND TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY. HERE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WERE ONLY SOME 25-50% OF NORMAL...WITH WHAT IS USUALLY THE WETTEST PERIOD OF
THE YEAR. EXTREME (D3) AND SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ELSEWHERE
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT
OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST
OF A RUSTON...TO JONESBORO...TO RICHWOOD LOUISIANA LINE...WHERE EXCESSIVELY
HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO FELL DURING THE 26TH-27TH OF APRIL.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL...AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPERIENCED DURING APRIL AND THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY HAS MAINTAINED
VERY DRY SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND MUCH OF NORTH
LOUISIANA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HOWEVER...MUCH IMPROVEMENT
WAS OBSERVED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD FIVE TO TEN INCHES OF RAIN
THAT FELL THROUGHOUT APRIL AND EARLY MAY. WHEREAS WET SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS
HAS GREENED VEGETATION...ELIMINATED THE BURN BANS...AND REDUCED THE FIRE
DANGER ACROSS THESE AREAS...THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE CONTINUATION OF
LOW LAKE AND POND LEVELS...WITH MANY PASTURES STILL VERY DRY.
THUS...PRODUCERS ARE STILL PROVIDING SUPPLEMENTAL FEED TO THEIR LIVESTOCK.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR RUSK...PANOLA...NACOGDOCHES...SHELBY...
ANGELINA...SAN AUGUSTINE...AND SABINE COUNTIES IN EASTERN TEXAS. BURN BANS
ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR DESOTO...RED RIVER...SABINE...AND NATCHITOCHES PARISHES
IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. FIRE DANGER REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS.
THE PLEASURE POINT WATER SYSTEM IN ANGELINA COUNTY TEXAS REMAINS
UNDER A MILD RATIONING OF WATER UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED THROUGH MUCH OF APRIL HAVE BEGUN TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. IN FACT...MOST LOCALES
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA EXPERIENCED ONE OF THE WARMEST APRILS
ON RECORD. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE APRIL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...THEIR
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...AND HOW THEY RANKED AS WARMEST APRILS ON RECORD...FOR
SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION:
CITY: APRIL 2011 DEPARTURE
AVG TEMP. FROM NORMAL
SHREVEPORT LA 70.8 +5.6
NOTE: APRIL RANKS AS THE 5TH WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD, BEHIND 1967, 1930, 2006,
AND 1925. RECORDS SINCE 1872.
SHREVEPORT LA 69.5 +4.3
(SOUTH SHREVEPORT/SOUTHERN HILLS OFFICIAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVING STATION)
NOTE: APRIL RANKS AS THE THIRD WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD, TIED WITH 2006.
RECORDS SINCE 1980.
MONROE LA 71.0 +5.1
NOTE: APRIL RANKS AS THE 2ND WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD, BEHIND 1981. RECORDS
SINCE 1930.
TEXARKANA AR 67.1 +2.8
NOTE: APRIL TIES AS THE 17TH WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1892.
EL DORADO AR 66.4 +2.7
DEQUEEN AR 63.5 +3.1
TYLER TX 72.1 +5.5
NOTE: APRIL RANKS AS THE 3RD WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD, BEHIND 1930 AND 1925.
RECORDS SINCE 1896.
LONGVIEW TX 71.6 +6.2
NOTE: APRIL RANKS AS THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1902.
LUFKIN TX 72.0 +5.8
NOTE: APRIL RANKS AS THE 2ND WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD, BEHIND 1967. RECORDS
SINCE 1949.
A DISTINCT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE
MONTH OF APRIL...WITH WIDESPREAD SIX TO TEN INCHES OF RAIN RECORDED...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWELVE INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF MCCURTAIN
COUNTY OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. BELOW IS A LIST
OF THE APRIL MONTHLY RAINFALL...THEIR DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENTAGES
OF NORMAL...FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION:
CITY: APRIL 2011 DEPARTURE PERCENTAGE
RAINFALL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL
SHREVEPORT LA 2.85 -1.57 64%
SHREVEPORT LA 4.63 +0.21 105%
(SOUTH SHREVEPORT/SOUTHERN HILLS OFFICIAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVING STATION)
MONROE LA 11.84 +7.07 248%
NOTE: THIS WAS THE 2ND WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1930.
NATCHITOCHES LA 2.30 -2.22 51%
COLUMBIA LA 3.90 -2.06 65%
TEXARKANA AR 5.94 +1.99 150%
EL DORADO AR 8.29 +3.74 182%
NOTE: THIS WAS THE 17TH WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1905.
HOPE 3NE AR 9.68 +4.79 198%
NOTE: THIS WAS THE 9TH WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1915.
PRESCOTT 2NNW AR 11.93 +6.96 26%
NOTE: THIS WAS THE 4TH WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD BEHIND 1966, 1973, AND 1957.
RECORDS SINCE 1896.
DEQUEEN AR 11.64 +6.79 255%
NOTE: THIS WAS THE 3RD WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD BEHIND 1957 AND 1986.
RECORDS SINCE 1936.
MT. PLEASANT TX 3.46 -0.31 92%
TYLER TX 3.25 -0.45 88%
LONGVIEW TX 3.07 -0.85 78%
LUFKIN TX 1.55 -1.58 50%
NOTE: THIS WAS THE 15TH DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1949.
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS...
MT. HERMAN 7.43 +2.89 164%
BROKEN BOW 12.25 +7.71 270%
IDABEL 7.62 +3.28 176%
PLENTIFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SIX TO IN EXCESS OF TWELVE INCHES ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
DURING APRIL HAS SIGNIFICANTLY EATEN AWAY AT THE LONG TERM RAINFALL
DEFICITS SINCE THE DROUGHT BEGAN OVER A YEAR AGO. HOWEVER...LITTLE CHANGE
WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITH THE LONG TERM DEFICITS...WITH SEVERE...EXTREME...
AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TEXAS
AND NORTH LOUISIANA. THESE AREAS ON AVERAGE HAVE SEEN ONLY 55-65% OF THEIR
NORMAL RAINFALL SINCE THE DROUGHT BEGAN IN MARCH 2010. BELOW IS A LIST OF
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM MARCH 2010 THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY 2011...THEIR
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...AND THEIR PERCENTAGES OF NORMAL...FOR SELECTED
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION:
CITY: MARCH `10 - MAY `11 DEPARTURE PERCENTAGE
(THROUGH 5/7/11) FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL
SHREVEPORT LA 36.88 -24.23 60%
SHREVEPORT LA 36.96 -24.15 60%
(SOUTH SHREVEPORT/SOUTHERN HILLS OFFICIAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVING STATION)
MONROE LA 59.15 -0.36 99%
NATCHITOCHES LA 34.25 -28.41 55%
COLUMBIA LA 39.73 -33.57 54%
TEXARKANA AR 37.04 -18.64 67%
EL DORADO AR 39.87 -25.11 61%
HOPE 3NE AR 44.07 -21.94 67%
PRESCOTT 2NNW AR 48.17 -18.05 73%
DEQUEEN AR 44.02 -20.92 68%
MT. PLEASANT TX 36.57 -17.41 68%
TYLER TX 36.10 -17.80 67%
LONGVIEW TX 31.17 -26.92 54%
LUFKIN TX 34.64 -19.70 64%
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS...
MT. HERMAN 50.25 -16.45 75%
BROKEN BOW 57.63 -9.07 86%
IDABEL 45.11 -16.09 74%
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST WEDNESDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SLOWLY EJECT NORTHEAST OUT INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER EAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY...AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO COOL TEMPERATURES BEFORE IT WASHES OUT
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SERIES OF SYSTEMS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR.
THE THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MAY-JUNE-JULY...ISSUED BY
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...INDICATES GREATER PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. EQUAL
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL/NORMAL/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
INDICATED OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE THREE MONTH
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THROUGH JULY INDICATES GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL/NORMAL/BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL ARE CURRENTLY INDICATED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS...NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES OF POOL
STAGES AND RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING LATE APRIL AND EARLY
MAY. IN FACT...RESERVOIRS HERE HAVE RISEN TO SOME TWO TO FIVE FEET ABOVE
NORMAL POOL STAGE...WITH BROKEN BOW LAKE...DEQUEEN LAKE...GILLHAM LAKE...AND
DIERKS LAKE RISING SOME TWELVE TO TWENTY FIVE FEET ABOVE NORMAL POOL STAGE
GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUNDS AND EXTENSIVE RUNOFF. MEANWHILE...BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS
DURING APRIL HAS RESULTED IN LOWER THAN NORMAL POOL STAGES ACROSS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS...WITH RESERVOIRS SUCH AS LAKE TAWAKONI...LAKE FORK...MARTIN
LAKE...LAKE NACOGDOCHES...AND SAM RAYBURN LAKE REMAINING SOME THREE TO SEVEN
FEET BELOW NORMAL. MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
ALONG THE SULPHUR RIVER IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND THROUGH MUCH OF MAY/EARLY
JUNE ALONG THE OUACHITA RIVER IN SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS. FLOWS ALONG THE RED
RIVER IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA WILL ALSO REMAIN
ABNORMALLY HIGH THROUGH THE THIRD WEEK OF MAY...AS CONSIDERABLE RUNOFF AND
RESERVOIR RELEASES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
CONTINUE TO ROUTE DOWNSTREAM.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY EARLY JUNE.
&&
RELATED WEB SITES...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT HOMEPAGE: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SHV
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM: WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR: WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER: WWW.DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
LA OFFICE OF STATE CLIMATOLOGY: WWW.LOSC.LSU.EDU
TX OFFICE OF STATE CLIMATOLOGY: WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC
OK CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY: HTTP://CLIMATE.OK.GOV
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY: HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV
TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURAL COMMUNICATIONS-AGNEWS: HTTP://AGNEWS.TAMU.EDU
LA DEPT. OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY: HTTP://WWW.LDAF.STATE.LA.US/
TEXAS FOREST SERVICE: HTTP://TEXASFORESTSERVICE.TAMU.EDU
ARKANSAS FIRE INFO: HTTP://WWW.ARKFIREINFO.ORG
OKLAHOMA FORESTRY SERVICES: HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.OK.GOV/WILDLAND-FIRE
LSU AG CENTER: HTTP://WWW.LSUAGCENTER.COM
Thursday, May 5, 2011
Northern Florida Hams Respond to Aftermath of Alabama Storm
After the devastating storms that swept through Alabama last week, radio amateurs from the ARRLs’ Northern Florida Section -- at the invitation of ARRL Alabama Section Emergency Coordinator Greg Gross, K4GR -- are making their way to Alabama to provide assistance.
“We contacted Greg and worked out a disaster operation assignment,” ARRL Northern Florida Section Manager Paul Eakin, KJ4G, told the ARRL. “We have already sent two teams to Alabama and have five others on stand-by.”
Both teams from Northern Florida are comprised of two amateurs and equipment. Team 1 -- Eakin and Donna Barker, WQ4M -- came to Alabama with a motorhome equipped with a full command post, as well as a tow vehicle with HF and VHF/UHF capabilities. “We took spare UHF/VHF antennas and 600 feet of LMR-400, three HF stations, four VHF/UHF mobiles and the supplies to build portable HF antennas,” Eakin said.
The team was originally assigned to Hackleburg -- a town of slightly more than 1400 residents. On April 27, thetown suffered catastrophic damage when it was hit by an EF5 tornado that killed more than 30 Hackleburg residents. On May 2, the American Red Cross declared the town 75 percent destroyed. Instead, Eakin and Barker are now in Jasper, Alabama. “We are operating a net control station and providing a crossband repeater for Marion County’s Emergency Operations Center,” Eakin explained.
Norm Scholer, K4GFD, and Gary Alberstadt, KA3FZO, make up Team 2. Eakin told the ARRL that this team has a pick-up truck and a fifth wheel trailer with portable equipment and two repeaters. Team 2 is in Hackleburg. Both Team 1 and Team 2 were required to be self-contained for seven days.
“This was a very damaging tornado and it will be very long time before everything is cleared up,” Eakin said. “Greg, the Section Emergency Coordinator in Alabama, is on top of the situation as I can tell and he is doing a great job. It appears he has approximately five ‘hot spot’ areas going on at once.”
“We contacted Greg and worked out a disaster operation assignment,” ARRL Northern Florida Section Manager Paul Eakin, KJ4G, told the ARRL. “We have already sent two teams to Alabama and have five others on stand-by.”
Both teams from Northern Florida are comprised of two amateurs and equipment. Team 1 -- Eakin and Donna Barker, WQ4M -- came to Alabama with a motorhome equipped with a full command post, as well as a tow vehicle with HF and VHF/UHF capabilities. “We took spare UHF/VHF antennas and 600 feet of LMR-400, three HF stations, four VHF/UHF mobiles and the supplies to build portable HF antennas,” Eakin said.
The team was originally assigned to Hackleburg -- a town of slightly more than 1400 residents. On April 27, thetown suffered catastrophic damage when it was hit by an EF5 tornado that killed more than 30 Hackleburg residents. On May 2, the American Red Cross declared the town 75 percent destroyed. Instead, Eakin and Barker are now in Jasper, Alabama. “We are operating a net control station and providing a crossband repeater for Marion County’s Emergency Operations Center,” Eakin explained.
Norm Scholer, K4GFD, and Gary Alberstadt, KA3FZO, make up Team 2. Eakin told the ARRL that this team has a pick-up truck and a fifth wheel trailer with portable equipment and two repeaters. Team 2 is in Hackleburg. Both Team 1 and Team 2 were required to be self-contained for seven days.
“This was a very damaging tornado and it will be very long time before everything is cleared up,” Eakin said. “Greg, the Section Emergency Coordinator in Alabama, is on top of the situation as I can tell and he is doing a great job. It appears he has approximately five ‘hot spot’ areas going on at once.”
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
...SEVERAL STORM SURVEYS HAVE BEEN COMPLETED CONCERNING STORMS
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
840 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011
...SEVERAL STORM SURVEYS HAVE BEEN COMPLETED CONCERNING STORMS
WHICH OCCURRED APRIL 25 AND APRIL 26...
THIS DAMAGE OCCURRED OVER A TWO DAY PERIOD BEGINNING MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
DAMAGE NOTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGE WITH MULTIPLE
TORNADO WARNINGS ISSUED...IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO BEGIN
COMPLETING THE NECESSARY STORM DAMAGE SURVEYS ACROSS THE REGION.
AS SURVEYS ARE COMPLETED...TORNADOES WILL BE PLACED IN
CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER. DAMAGE SURVEYED WHICH IS DETERMINED TO BE NON
TORNADIC WILL BE PLACED AT THE END.
1. TATUM, TX
RATING: EF1
DATE: APRIL 26 2011
TIME: 6:35 PM THROUGH 6:54 PM
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 100 YDS
INJURIES: 0
FATALITIES: 0
DETAILS:
A FEW TREES WERE SNAPPED AT THEIR BASE AND HAD LARGE LIMBS BROKEN
OFF WITH THE INITIAL TOUCHDOWN ALONG CR 2138 SOUTHWEST OF TATUM.
IT CONTINUED ALONG A NORTHEAST PATH WHERE IT DESTROYED A STORAGE
OUTBUILDING AND UPROOTED SEVERAL TREES AT THE INTERSECTION OF FM
2187 AND HWY 149. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE IT
UPROOTED SEVERAL TREES AND RIPPED OFF THE TOPS OF SEVERAL MORE
ALONG CR 2216 AND CR 2221. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO THE NORTHEAST
WHERE NUMEROUS TREE DAMAGE ALONG A PARALLEL PATH WITH HENDRICKS
LAKE ROAD WAS NOTED. THE TORNADO THEN BRIEFLY CROSSED INTO PANOLA
AND HARRISON COUNTIES KNOCKING OVER A FEW TREES ALONG HWY 43,
WHERE THE TORNADO THEN LIFTED. THE PATH LENGTH WAS 13.8 MILES AND
MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80-85 MPH.
2. 4 MILES SSE OF MARSHALL, TX
RATING: EF2
DATE: APRIL 26 2011
TIME: 7:04 PM THROUGH 7:14 PM
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 400 YDS
INJURIES: 0
FATALITIES: 0
DETAILS:
A FEW TREES WERE SNAPPED AT THEIR BASE AND HAD LARGE LIMBS BROKEN
OFF WITH THE INITIAL TOUCHDOWN ALONG FM 2625 JUST WEST OF HWY
59. THE TORNADO PARALLELED FM 2625 CAUSING SPORADIC TREE DAMAGE
UNTIL IT REACHED THE INTERSECTION OF FM 2625 AND TAYLOR ROAD. THE
TORNADO STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY IN A SHORT TIME FRAME, CAUSING EF2
DAMAGE TO TWO RESIDENTIAL HOMES AND EF1 DAMAGE TO A THIRD. ONE
HOUSE COMPLETELY LOST ITS ROOF WHILE ANOTHER HAD AN ENTIRE ROOM
DESTROYED. THE THIRD HOME HAD ITS METAL ROOF PEELED OFF WHILE
SUSTAINING PARTIAL WALL FAILURE. NUMEROUS TREES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE HOMES WERE COMPLETELY TOPPLED OR HAD THEIR TOPS SHEARED OFF.
THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE IT INTERSECTED
BLOCKER ROAD NEAR FM 2625 SNAPPING AND UPROOTING NUMEROUS TREES.
THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO THE NORTHEAST DISSIPATING OVER A LOGGING
ROAD A MILE TO THE EAST OF BLOCKER RD. THE PATH LENGTH WAS 5.5
MILES AND MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 120-125 MPH.
3. JONESVILLE, TX
RATING: EF0
DATE: APRIL 26 2011
TIME: 7:24 PM THROUGH 7:34 PM
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 70 YDS
INJURIES: 0
FATALITIES: 0
DETAILS:
A FEW TREES WERE SNAPPED WITH THE INITIAL TOUCHDOWN ALONG AND JUST
NORTH I-20, NEAR THE HWY 80 EXIT JUST WEST OF WASKOM. THE TORNADO
CONTINUED NORTHEAST CAUSING SPORADIC TREE DAMAGE ALONG BELLVIEW
ROAD. THE TORNADO THEN CONTINUED NORTHEAST WHERE IT TOPPLED
SEVERAL LARGE TREES AND KNOCKED DOWN LARGE LIMBS ALONG CONCORD
ROAD BETWEEN FM 134 AND OWEN GEORGE ROAD. THE TORNADO CONTINUED
NORTHEAST WHERE IT TOOK THE TOPS OFF OF A FEW TREES ALONG OWEN
GEORGE ROAD. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST KNOCKING OVER A FEW
TREES ALONG FM 9, WHERE IT FINALLY DISSIPATED. THE PATH LENGTH WAS
5.94 MILES AND MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70-75 MPH.
4. BENTON, LA
RATING: EF0
DATE: APRIL 26 2011
TIME: 7:34 PM THROUGH 7:39 PM
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 50 YDS
INJURIES: 0
FATALITIES: 0
DETAILS:
SEVERAL LARGE TREES WERE TOPPLED AND A FEW LARGE LIMBS WERE BROKEN
OFF TREES AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE MAGNOLIA CHASE SUBDIVISION ALONG
BENTON ROAD JUST SOUTH OF THE CITY OF BENTON. THE TORNADO
CONTINUED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WHERE IT BROKE OFF LARGE LIMBS ON
A FEW TREES ALONG BENTON ROAD NEAR JACOBS TRAIL. THE TORNADO
CONTINUED TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE IT SNAPPED A TREE AT ITS BASE AND
KNOCKED DOWN A FEW LARGE LIMBS ALONG PALMETTO ROAD SOUTH OF THE
CITY OF BENTON. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST WHERE IT TOPPLED A
LARGE TREE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF LARKIN STREET AND PALMETTO
ROAD AND FINALLY DISSIPATED. THE PATH LENGTH WAS 3.57 MILES AND MAXIMUM
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70-75 MPH.
5. KEACHI...FRIERSON, LA
RATING: EF2
DATE: APRIL 26 2011
TIME: 7:46 PM THROUGH 8:39 PM
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 0.5 MILES
INJURIES: 2
FATALITIES: 0
DETAILS:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONDUCTED A STORM SURVEY IN PANOLA COUNTY
TEXAS...DESOTO...CADDO AND BOSSIER PARISHES IN LOUISIANA AND
TRACKED A LONG TRACK TORNADO. MOST OF THE DAMAGE ALONG THE PATH
CONSISTED OF EF0 TO EF1 TYPE DAMAGE. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR KEACHI...LONGSTREET
AND FRIERSON EXHIBITED LOW END EF2 DAMAGE. THE TORNADO WAS
CONSISTENTLY ON THE GROUND FOR A CONTINUOUS 42 MILES. TREES WERE
SNAPPED AND UPROOTED...AND AS MANY AS 3 DOZEN HOMES SUSTAINED
MINOR DAMAGE WITH A FEW MODERATELY DAMAGED HOMES WHERE CARPORTS
WERE PEELED BACK OR TREES FELL ON THEM. SEVERAL BARNS WERE KNOCKED
OVER OR DESTROYED AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST DAMAGE WAS LOCATED IN THE
COMMUNITY OF FRIERSON WHERE WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED AND
THE TORNADO WAS AT ITS WIDEST POINT. OTHER DAMAGE ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE TORNADO TRACK IS RELATED TO REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFT
OTHERWISE KNOWN AS STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE TORNADO TRACKED FROM
EASTERN PANOLA COUNTY NEAR FM 3359 NORTHEAST INTO DESOTO PARISH
ACROSS BELLE BOWER TEXAS LINE ROAD...STATE ROUTE 3015 WHERE TREES
WERE SNAPPED OFF 4 TO 6 FEET OFF THE GROUND AND 2 TANKS FROM A GAS
WELL WERE OVERTURNED. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST CROSSING
STATE ROUTE 5 BETWEEN KEACHI AND LONGSTREET?THEN CROSSED SMYRNA
ROAD KNOCKING OVER TREES ONTO AND AROUND HOMES. THE TORNADO
CROSSED HWY 171 SOUTH OF THE HWY 5 AND 171 INTERSECTION AND
FOLLOWED ALONG JESSIE LATTIN WHERE A SEVERAL HOMES WERE DAMAGED
AND BARNS DESTROYED. THE STORM CONTINUED NORTHEAST CROSSING I49
WHERE RED BLUFF ROAD CROSSES UNDER. NUMEROUS TREES WERE DOWNED AND
INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS THE STORM MOVED INTO FRIERSON. THE
TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST CROSSING THE INTERSECTION OF ELLERBE
ROAD AND HWY 1 WHERE SEVERAL PECAN TREES WERE SNAPPED THEN ACROSS
THE RED RIVER INTO BOSSIER PARISH AND ACROSS ATKINS CLARK ROAD
WHERE A MOBILE TRAILER WAS FLIPPED AT A GAS WELL INJURING THE
OCCUPANTS. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST CROSSING HWY 154 AND
157 INTERSECTION DAMAGING TREES AND POWERLINES BEFORE WEAKENING
AND LIFTING NEAR LAKE BISTENEAU. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
110 - 115 MPH.
6. DUBBERLY, LA
RATING: EF1
DATE: ARPIL 26 2011
TIME: 8:54 PM THROUGH 8:57 PM
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 150 YARDS
INJURIES: 0
FATALITIES: 0
DETAILS:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONDUCTED A STORM SURVEY IN WEBSTER
PARISH LA NEAR DUBBERLY AND CONCLUDED THAT DAMAGE WAS THE RESULT
OF AN EF1 TORNADO. NUMEROUS TREES WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED SOUTH
OF SIBLEY EAST OF 371. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST INTO
DUBBERLY WHERE SEVERAL HOMES SUSTAINED ROOF DAMAGE. NUMEROUS TREES
WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED ALONG HWY 531NORTH OF DUBBERLY. THE
TORNADO LIFTED AS IT APPROACHED INTERSTATE 20. THE STORM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS TORNADO IS THE SAME CELL THAT PRODUCED A 42
MILE LONG TRACK ACROSS DESOTO PARISH. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 95-105 MPH.
7. HALL SUMMIT, LA
RATING: EF1
DATE: APRIL 26 2011
TIME: 10:55 PM THROUGH 10:56 PM
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 125 YARDS
INJURIES: 0
FATALITIES: 0
DETAILS:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONDUCTED A STORM SURVEY IN
RED RIVER PARISH LA NEAR HALL SUMMIT AND CONCLUDED THAT DAMAGE
WAS THE RESULT OF AN EF1 TORNADO. A COUPLE BARNS WERE DESTROYED
WEST OF TOWN NORTH OF STATE ROUTE 514. THE TORNADO CONTINUED EAST
SNAPPING AND UPROOTING TREES ALONG 514. SEVERAL HOMES IN TOWN
SUSTAINED MINOR TO MODERATE ROOF DAMAGE. THE TORNADO CROSSED 514
EAST OF HALL SUMMIT WHERE NUMEROUS TREES WERE SNAPPED ONTO THE
ROAD. THE TORNADO CONTINUED EAST CROSSING 371 KNOCKING OVER A FEW
TREES BEFORE LIFTING EAST OF 371. A SHERIFF DEPUTY WITNESSED THE
TORNADO CROSSING THE HWY EAST OF HALL SUMMIT AND WAS BLOCKED IN
FROM FALLING TREES. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 85-90 MPH.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
840 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011
...SEVERAL STORM SURVEYS HAVE BEEN COMPLETED CONCERNING STORMS
WHICH OCCURRED APRIL 25 AND APRIL 26...
THIS DAMAGE OCCURRED OVER A TWO DAY PERIOD BEGINNING MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
DAMAGE NOTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGE WITH MULTIPLE
TORNADO WARNINGS ISSUED...IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO BEGIN
COMPLETING THE NECESSARY STORM DAMAGE SURVEYS ACROSS THE REGION.
AS SURVEYS ARE COMPLETED...TORNADOES WILL BE PLACED IN
CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER. DAMAGE SURVEYED WHICH IS DETERMINED TO BE NON
TORNADIC WILL BE PLACED AT THE END.
1. TATUM, TX
RATING: EF1
DATE: APRIL 26 2011
TIME: 6:35 PM THROUGH 6:54 PM
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 100 YDS
INJURIES: 0
FATALITIES: 0
DETAILS:
A FEW TREES WERE SNAPPED AT THEIR BASE AND HAD LARGE LIMBS BROKEN
OFF WITH THE INITIAL TOUCHDOWN ALONG CR 2138 SOUTHWEST OF TATUM.
IT CONTINUED ALONG A NORTHEAST PATH WHERE IT DESTROYED A STORAGE
OUTBUILDING AND UPROOTED SEVERAL TREES AT THE INTERSECTION OF FM
2187 AND HWY 149. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE IT
UPROOTED SEVERAL TREES AND RIPPED OFF THE TOPS OF SEVERAL MORE
ALONG CR 2216 AND CR 2221. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO THE NORTHEAST
WHERE NUMEROUS TREE DAMAGE ALONG A PARALLEL PATH WITH HENDRICKS
LAKE ROAD WAS NOTED. THE TORNADO THEN BRIEFLY CROSSED INTO PANOLA
AND HARRISON COUNTIES KNOCKING OVER A FEW TREES ALONG HWY 43,
WHERE THE TORNADO THEN LIFTED. THE PATH LENGTH WAS 13.8 MILES AND
MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80-85 MPH.
2. 4 MILES SSE OF MARSHALL, TX
RATING: EF2
DATE: APRIL 26 2011
TIME: 7:04 PM THROUGH 7:14 PM
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 400 YDS
INJURIES: 0
FATALITIES: 0
DETAILS:
A FEW TREES WERE SNAPPED AT THEIR BASE AND HAD LARGE LIMBS BROKEN
OFF WITH THE INITIAL TOUCHDOWN ALONG FM 2625 JUST WEST OF HWY
59. THE TORNADO PARALLELED FM 2625 CAUSING SPORADIC TREE DAMAGE
UNTIL IT REACHED THE INTERSECTION OF FM 2625 AND TAYLOR ROAD. THE
TORNADO STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY IN A SHORT TIME FRAME, CAUSING EF2
DAMAGE TO TWO RESIDENTIAL HOMES AND EF1 DAMAGE TO A THIRD. ONE
HOUSE COMPLETELY LOST ITS ROOF WHILE ANOTHER HAD AN ENTIRE ROOM
DESTROYED. THE THIRD HOME HAD ITS METAL ROOF PEELED OFF WHILE
SUSTAINING PARTIAL WALL FAILURE. NUMEROUS TREES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE HOMES WERE COMPLETELY TOPPLED OR HAD THEIR TOPS SHEARED OFF.
THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE IT INTERSECTED
BLOCKER ROAD NEAR FM 2625 SNAPPING AND UPROOTING NUMEROUS TREES.
THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO THE NORTHEAST DISSIPATING OVER A LOGGING
ROAD A MILE TO THE EAST OF BLOCKER RD. THE PATH LENGTH WAS 5.5
MILES AND MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 120-125 MPH.
3. JONESVILLE, TX
RATING: EF0
DATE: APRIL 26 2011
TIME: 7:24 PM THROUGH 7:34 PM
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 70 YDS
INJURIES: 0
FATALITIES: 0
DETAILS:
A FEW TREES WERE SNAPPED WITH THE INITIAL TOUCHDOWN ALONG AND JUST
NORTH I-20, NEAR THE HWY 80 EXIT JUST WEST OF WASKOM. THE TORNADO
CONTINUED NORTHEAST CAUSING SPORADIC TREE DAMAGE ALONG BELLVIEW
ROAD. THE TORNADO THEN CONTINUED NORTHEAST WHERE IT TOPPLED
SEVERAL LARGE TREES AND KNOCKED DOWN LARGE LIMBS ALONG CONCORD
ROAD BETWEEN FM 134 AND OWEN GEORGE ROAD. THE TORNADO CONTINUED
NORTHEAST WHERE IT TOOK THE TOPS OFF OF A FEW TREES ALONG OWEN
GEORGE ROAD. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST KNOCKING OVER A FEW
TREES ALONG FM 9, WHERE IT FINALLY DISSIPATED. THE PATH LENGTH WAS
5.94 MILES AND MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70-75 MPH.
4. BENTON, LA
RATING: EF0
DATE: APRIL 26 2011
TIME: 7:34 PM THROUGH 7:39 PM
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 50 YDS
INJURIES: 0
FATALITIES: 0
DETAILS:
SEVERAL LARGE TREES WERE TOPPLED AND A FEW LARGE LIMBS WERE BROKEN
OFF TREES AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE MAGNOLIA CHASE SUBDIVISION ALONG
BENTON ROAD JUST SOUTH OF THE CITY OF BENTON. THE TORNADO
CONTINUED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WHERE IT BROKE OFF LARGE LIMBS ON
A FEW TREES ALONG BENTON ROAD NEAR JACOBS TRAIL. THE TORNADO
CONTINUED TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE IT SNAPPED A TREE AT ITS BASE AND
KNOCKED DOWN A FEW LARGE LIMBS ALONG PALMETTO ROAD SOUTH OF THE
CITY OF BENTON. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST WHERE IT TOPPLED A
LARGE TREE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF LARKIN STREET AND PALMETTO
ROAD AND FINALLY DISSIPATED. THE PATH LENGTH WAS 3.57 MILES AND MAXIMUM
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70-75 MPH.
5. KEACHI...FRIERSON, LA
RATING: EF2
DATE: APRIL 26 2011
TIME: 7:46 PM THROUGH 8:39 PM
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 0.5 MILES
INJURIES: 2
FATALITIES: 0
DETAILS:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONDUCTED A STORM SURVEY IN PANOLA COUNTY
TEXAS...DESOTO...CADDO AND BOSSIER PARISHES IN LOUISIANA AND
TRACKED A LONG TRACK TORNADO. MOST OF THE DAMAGE ALONG THE PATH
CONSISTED OF EF0 TO EF1 TYPE DAMAGE. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR KEACHI...LONGSTREET
AND FRIERSON EXHIBITED LOW END EF2 DAMAGE. THE TORNADO WAS
CONSISTENTLY ON THE GROUND FOR A CONTINUOUS 42 MILES. TREES WERE
SNAPPED AND UPROOTED...AND AS MANY AS 3 DOZEN HOMES SUSTAINED
MINOR DAMAGE WITH A FEW MODERATELY DAMAGED HOMES WHERE CARPORTS
WERE PEELED BACK OR TREES FELL ON THEM. SEVERAL BARNS WERE KNOCKED
OVER OR DESTROYED AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST DAMAGE WAS LOCATED IN THE
COMMUNITY OF FRIERSON WHERE WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED AND
THE TORNADO WAS AT ITS WIDEST POINT. OTHER DAMAGE ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE TORNADO TRACK IS RELATED TO REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFT
OTHERWISE KNOWN AS STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE TORNADO TRACKED FROM
EASTERN PANOLA COUNTY NEAR FM 3359 NORTHEAST INTO DESOTO PARISH
ACROSS BELLE BOWER TEXAS LINE ROAD...STATE ROUTE 3015 WHERE TREES
WERE SNAPPED OFF 4 TO 6 FEET OFF THE GROUND AND 2 TANKS FROM A GAS
WELL WERE OVERTURNED. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST CROSSING
STATE ROUTE 5 BETWEEN KEACHI AND LONGSTREET?THEN CROSSED SMYRNA
ROAD KNOCKING OVER TREES ONTO AND AROUND HOMES. THE TORNADO
CROSSED HWY 171 SOUTH OF THE HWY 5 AND 171 INTERSECTION AND
FOLLOWED ALONG JESSIE LATTIN WHERE A SEVERAL HOMES WERE DAMAGED
AND BARNS DESTROYED. THE STORM CONTINUED NORTHEAST CROSSING I49
WHERE RED BLUFF ROAD CROSSES UNDER. NUMEROUS TREES WERE DOWNED AND
INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS THE STORM MOVED INTO FRIERSON. THE
TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST CROSSING THE INTERSECTION OF ELLERBE
ROAD AND HWY 1 WHERE SEVERAL PECAN TREES WERE SNAPPED THEN ACROSS
THE RED RIVER INTO BOSSIER PARISH AND ACROSS ATKINS CLARK ROAD
WHERE A MOBILE TRAILER WAS FLIPPED AT A GAS WELL INJURING THE
OCCUPANTS. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST CROSSING HWY 154 AND
157 INTERSECTION DAMAGING TREES AND POWERLINES BEFORE WEAKENING
AND LIFTING NEAR LAKE BISTENEAU. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
110 - 115 MPH.
6. DUBBERLY, LA
RATING: EF1
DATE: ARPIL 26 2011
TIME: 8:54 PM THROUGH 8:57 PM
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 150 YARDS
INJURIES: 0
FATALITIES: 0
DETAILS:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONDUCTED A STORM SURVEY IN WEBSTER
PARISH LA NEAR DUBBERLY AND CONCLUDED THAT DAMAGE WAS THE RESULT
OF AN EF1 TORNADO. NUMEROUS TREES WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED SOUTH
OF SIBLEY EAST OF 371. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST INTO
DUBBERLY WHERE SEVERAL HOMES SUSTAINED ROOF DAMAGE. NUMEROUS TREES
WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED ALONG HWY 531NORTH OF DUBBERLY. THE
TORNADO LIFTED AS IT APPROACHED INTERSTATE 20. THE STORM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS TORNADO IS THE SAME CELL THAT PRODUCED A 42
MILE LONG TRACK ACROSS DESOTO PARISH. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 95-105 MPH.
7. HALL SUMMIT, LA
RATING: EF1
DATE: APRIL 26 2011
TIME: 10:55 PM THROUGH 10:56 PM
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 125 YARDS
INJURIES: 0
FATALITIES: 0
DETAILS:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONDUCTED A STORM SURVEY IN
RED RIVER PARISH LA NEAR HALL SUMMIT AND CONCLUDED THAT DAMAGE
WAS THE RESULT OF AN EF1 TORNADO. A COUPLE BARNS WERE DESTROYED
WEST OF TOWN NORTH OF STATE ROUTE 514. THE TORNADO CONTINUED EAST
SNAPPING AND UPROOTING TREES ALONG 514. SEVERAL HOMES IN TOWN
SUSTAINED MINOR TO MODERATE ROOF DAMAGE. THE TORNADO CROSSED 514
EAST OF HALL SUMMIT WHERE NUMEROUS TREES WERE SNAPPED ONTO THE
ROAD. THE TORNADO CONTINUED EAST CROSSING 371 KNOCKING OVER A FEW
TREES BEFORE LIFTING EAST OF 371. A SHERIFF DEPUTY WITNESSED THE
TORNADO CROSSING THE HWY EAST OF HALL SUMMIT AND WAS BLOCKED IN
FROM FALLING TREES. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 85-90 MPH.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Public Severe Weather Outlook
WOUS40 KWNS 261153
ARZ000-LAZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-261800-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE
RED RIVER AREA OF TEXAS...EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LONG TRACK
STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WIND MAY ALSO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..DIAL.. 04/26/2011
$$
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Hazardous Weather Outlook
000
FLUS44 KSHV 191643
HWOSHV
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1143 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>012-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-201645-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-
TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-
CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-
1143 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING LATE TODAY JUST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SO STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...KEEPING RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MORE
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS WHICH CAN REACH SEVERE LIMITS. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FLUS44 KSHV 191643
HWOSHV
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1143 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>012-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-201645-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-
TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-
CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-
1143 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING LATE TODAY JUST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SO STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...KEEPING RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MORE
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS WHICH CAN REACH SEVERE LIMITS. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
Day One Convective Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011
VALID 191630Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF ERN OK...AR...CNTRL/SRN MO...WRN TN...KY...IL...IND AND WRN
OH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD
INTO SRN TX...
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
...OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO ERN OK/AR...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE NEWD...CONTRIBUTING TO A CORRIDOR OF 30-60 M
HEIGHT FALLS PER 12-HR AT 500 MB FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID MS VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE
LOW ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM ANALYZED OVER W-CNTRL MO AS OF 16Z WILL
DEVELOP NNEWD TO N OF STL BY 19/21Z...THE IL/IND BORDER NEAR DNV BY
20/03Z TO LAKE ERIE BY 20/12Z. A WARM FRONT WILL PRECEDE THE
LOW...GRADUALLY LIFTING NWD THROUGH IL/IND/OH/PA. TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW OVER
CNTRL IL SWWD THROUGH E-CNTRL MO...NWRN AR AND SERN OK BY 20/00Z.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES/EML IN PLACE FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE
MID/LOWER MS VALLEYS. THESE LAPSE RATES RESIDE ABOVE A MOIST AND
RATHER BROAD WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES OF 1.0-1.5
INCHES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES OF HAIL N OF WARM FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY TODAY...A CAP
AT THE BASE OF THE EML IS EXPECTED TO DELAY SURFACE-BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL YIELD A MODERATELY TO STRONG UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG S OF THE WARM
FRONT IN THE OH VALLEY...TO 3000-4000+ J/KG AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM
SRN MO INTO ERN OK/WRN AR. FRONTAL UPLIFT COUPLED WITH INCREASED
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO MIDLEVEL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO
FOSTER TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON FROM THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL MO SWWD TO ERN OK/WRN AR.
AN ISALLOBARICALLY BACKED WIND FIELD AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW WILL
RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FROM E-CNTRL MO EWD
THROUGH CNTRL PARTS OF IL/IND. GIVEN MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES
/I.E. SUPERCELLS/...THIS AREA WILL REPRESENT THE GREATEST RISK FOR
TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/ FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE
SEGMENTS ALONG COLD FRONT WITH EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR
MULTIPLE MCSS/QLCSS. WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCES OF HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
THE WIDE...UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.
...TX...
TSTM POTENTIAL AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MORE UNCERTAIN
WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO WEAK OR
NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. NONETHELESS...MORNING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SUGGEST THAT STRONG DIABATIC HEATING
WILL OCCUR TODAY ALONG AND W OF DRYLINE...BOOSTING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S. SHOULD SUFFICIENT HEATING/CONVERGENCE
DEVELOP TO INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS...THE PRESENCE OF MLCAPE VALUES
OF 3000-4000+ J/KG AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP
WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO
COOL AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES.
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