DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
220 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011
...SEVERE AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...WITH SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTH
INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
SYNOPSIS...
THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH. THERE HAS BEEN ONLY LIMITED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN
MORE NUMEROUS IN RECENT DAYS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS AND THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA. MOST LOCALES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE
RECORDED AT LEAST 10 DAYS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED/EXCEEDED 100
DEGREES...WITH TYLER AND LONGVIEW TEXAS HAVING OBSERVED 18 AND 16 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS (RESPECTIVELY) SINCE LATE JUNE WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED/EXCEEDED
THE CENTURY MARK. THIS STREAK IS FAST APPROACHING THE ALL-TIME RECORD OF 20
AND 21 DAYS (RESPECTIVELY) OF CONSECUTIVE NUMBER OF 100+ DEGREE DAYS...WITH
THESE TWO OBSERVING STATIONS ALSO ON TRACK TO SET THE HOTTEST JULYS AND MONTHS
EVER ON RECORD. THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO
COUNTY/PARISHWIDE BURN BANS OVER ALL OF NORTH LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EXCEPT FOR RED RIVER COUNTY TEXAS AND
MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA. WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS
NORTH LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS...WITH A WATER EMERGENCY HAVING BEEN DECLARED
FOR SABINE PARISH IN WESTCENTRAL LOUISIANA...AS MUCH OF THE PARISH DRAWS WATER
FROM TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR...WHICH IS SOME 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL POOL
STAGE. THE CURRENT POOL STAGE IS NO LONGER SUFFICIENT FOR THE WATER PUMPS TO
DRAW WATER FROM TOLEDO BEND INTO THE PARISH...WITH A TOTAL RELIANCE NOW ON
SMALLER WATER WELLS.
MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS THUS FAR THIS JULY HAVE RANGED FROM A PALTRY TENTH
OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
TEXAS...TO UP TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE ACROSS EAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. TOTALS FARTHER EAST IMPROVE ONLY SLIGHTLY...WITH
TWO TO THREE PLUS INCH AMOUNTS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST OF AN EL DORADO
ARKANSAS...TO RUSTON AND NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA LINE. AS A RESULT...A SLOW
DEGRADATION CONTINUES IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT...WITH EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT
CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS...EAST OF A HALLSVILLE...TO
SAN AUGUSTINE LINE...INTO WESTCENTRAL LOUISIANA SOUTH OF A KEITHVILLE...TO
HALL SUMMIT...TO ATLANTA AND COLFAX LINE. EXTREME (D3) AND SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA...AND HAS ALSO SPREAD NORTH INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE OPPRESSIVELY HOT TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND THE EXCESSIVELY HOT TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND WESTERN LOUISIANA HAS NOT IMPROVED THE AGRICULTURAL
CONDITIONS...WITH VERY WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES EVAPORATING OUT WHAT AVAILABLE
SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS. A MINIMUM AMOUNT OF HAY HAS BEEN CUT SO FAR THIS
SEASON...WITH MANY PRODUCERS CULLING HERDS AND SELLING CALVES. OTHER
FARMERS NOT SELLING THEIR LIVESTOCK WERE PROVIDING SUPPLEMENTAL FEED TO THEIR
HERDS. POND AND LAKE LEVELS ALSO CONTINUED TO DROP...AND REMAIN LOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
BURN BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES AND PARISHES IN NORTH
LOUISIANA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS EXCEPT FOR RED RIVER
COUNTY TEXAS AND MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA.
CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS.
MANDATORY WATER RATIONING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH DESOTO...KEATCHIE...
AND SOUTH CLAIBORNE PARISH WATER SYSTEMS IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. MANDATORY WATER RATIONING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CITY OF MANY
LOUISIANA AND FOR MUCH OF SABINE PARISH...AS LEVELS AT TOLEDO BEND LAKE...THE
PARISH'S PRIMARY WATER SUPPLY...HAS FALLEN TO NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE WATER
PUMPS. THE PARISH IS NOW HAVING TO RELY ON SMALLER WELLS THROUGHOUT THE PARISH
FOR THEIR WATER SUPPLY. THE PLEASURE POINT AND THE FOUR WAY WATER SYSTEMS IN
ANGELINA COUNTY TEXAS...REMAIN UNDER A MILD RATIONING OF WATER UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. IN ADDITION...THE MURVAUL (PANOLA COUNTY)...LAKE HARBOR SUBDIVISION
(SMITH COUNTY)...HUXLEY (SHELBY)...MELROSE (NACOGDOCHES)...BLAND LAKE/SAN
AUGUSTINE (SAN AUGUSTINE)...AND HEMPHILL/EL CAMINO BAY/PENDLETON (SABINE
COUNTY) WATER SYSTEMS...HAVE ALSO INSTITUTED RATIONING OF WATER UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO RUN MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION THROUGH MID JULY...ALTHOUGH RECENT RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED FOR
MONTHLY TOTALS TO NEAR OR EXCEED NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST OF AN EL DORADO
ARKANSAS...TO RUSTON AND NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA LINE. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE
JULY MONTHLY RAINFALL...THEIR DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENTAGES OF
NORMAL...FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION:
CITY: JULY 2011 DEPARTURE PERCENTAGE
RAINFALL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL
(THROUGH 7/15/11)
SHREVEPORT LA 0.92 -1.21 43%
SHREVEPORT LA 0.91 -1.22 43%
(SOUTH SHREVEPORT/SOUTHERN HILLS OFFICIAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVING STATION)
MONROE LA 1.39 -0.43 76%
NATCHITOCHES LA 5.26 +3.56 309%
COLUMBIA LA 0.73 -1.26 37%
TEXARKANA AR 0.70 -1.36 34%
EL DORADO AR 1.17 -0.99 54%
HOPE 3NE AR 1.00 -0.96 51%
PRESCOTT 2NNW AR 0.10 -2.26 4%
DEQUEEN AR 0.42 -1.77 19%
MT. PLEASANT TX 0.00 -2.08 0%
TYLER TX 0.05 -1.09 4%
LONGVIEW TX 1.04 -0.67 61%
LUFKIN TX 1.41 +0.09 107%
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS...
MT. HERMAN 0.42 -1.82 19%
BROKEN BOW 0.01 -2.23 0%
IDABEL 0.01 -1.92 1%
THE VERY DRY SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND ONLY SPORADIC RAINFALL THROUGHOUT
THE MONTH HAVE LED TO VERY WARM FOUR INCH SOIL TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS
WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION.
THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED IN THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE MONTH. THIS IS ALSO RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AVERAGE MONTHLY
TEMPERATURES...WITH MANY LOCATIONS RANKING WITHIN THE TOP 5 WARMEST JULYS ON
RECORD. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE JULY MONTHLY TEMPERATURES...THEIR DEPARTURES
FROM NORMAL...AND HOW THEY RANK AS WARMEST JUNES ON RECORD...FOR SELECTED
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION:
CITY: JULY 2011 DEPARTURE RANKING FOR WARMEST
AVG. TEMPERATURE FROM NORMAL JULY ON RECORD
(THROUGH 7/15/11)
SHREVEPORT LA 88.0 +5.2 T2ND
NOTE: CURRENTLY TIED WITH JULY 1884 FOR 2ND WARMEST JULY ON RECORD. 1998
RANKS AS THE WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE
OF 88.5 DEGREES. RECORDS SINCE 1872.
MONROE LA 88.0 +5.0 1ST
NOTE: CURRENTLY RANKED AS THE WARMEST JULY ON RECORD AHEAD OF JULY 1980 WITH
AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 87.2 DEGREES. RECORDS SINCE 1930.
TEXARKANA AR 87.6 +5.3 2ND
NOTE: JULY 1980 RANKS AS THE WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE MONTHLY
TEMPERATURE OF 88.0 DEGREES. RECORDS SINCE 1892.
EL DORADO AR 85.9 +4.3 5TH
NOTE: CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 5TH WARMEST JULY ON RECORD BEHIND 1930
(87.1 DEGREES), 1998 (86.5 DEGREES), 1934 AND 1954 (86.0 DEGREES).
RECORDS SINCE 1905.
DEQUEEN AR 85.7 +5.3 4TH
NOTE: CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 4TH WARMEST JULY ON RECORD BEHIND 1998
(86.9 DEGREES), 1954 (86.4 DEGREES), AND 1978 (86.2 DEGREES). RECORDS
SINCE 1936.
TYLER TX 90.8 +8.0 1ST
NOTE: CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE WARMEST JULY AND MONTH EVER ON RECORD, AHEAD OF
JULY 1998 (89.7 DEGREES). RECORDS SINCE 1896.
LONGVIEW TX 89.8 +6.8 1ST
NOTE: CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE WARMEST JULY AND MONTH EVER ON RECORD, AHEAD OF
JULY 1998 (89.4 DEGREES). RECORDS SINCE 1902.
LUFKIN TX 87.5 +5.3 2ND
NOTE: CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 2ND WARMEST JULY ON RECORD, BEHIND 1998
(87.7 DEGREES). RECORDS SINCE 1949.
THE LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS CONTINUE TO INCREASE GIVEN THE MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS SUMMER.
DROUGHT DETERIORATION HAS NOW SPREAD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH MOST AREAS ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS RECORDING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS UP TO
A HALF INCH FOR THE MONTH. BELOW IS A LIST OF RAINFALL TOTALS FROM MARCH 2010
THROUGH MID JULY...THEIR DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...AND THEIR PERCENTAGES OF
NORMAL...FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION:
CITY: MARCH '10 - JULY '11 DEPARTURE PERCENTAGE
(THROUGH 7/15/11) FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL
SHREVEPORT LA 42.26 -29.84 59%
SHREVEPORT LA 42.93 -29.17 60%
(SOUTH SHREVEPORT/SOUTHERN HILLS OFFICIAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVING STATION)
MONROE LA 64.09 -5.26 92%
NATCHITOCHES LA 45.98 -27.47 63%
COLUMBIA LA 44.38 -40.31 52%
TEXARKANA AR 41.84 -23.88 64%
EL DORADO AR 43.38 -33.26 57%
HOPE 3NE AR 49.30 -27.19 64%
PRESCOTT 2NNW AR 51.00 -26.23 66%
DEQUEEN AR 46.89 -29.69 61%
MT. PLEASANT TX 39.62 -25.32 61%
TYLER TX 38.75 -23.43 62%
LONGVIEW TX 36.84 -31.90 54%
LUFKIN TX 43.10 -20.97 67%
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS...
MT. HERMAN 55.87 -22.87 71%
BROKEN BOW 61.72 -17.02 78%
IDABEL 50.73 -21.43 70%
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE AT LEAST
THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NATION'S MIDSECTION THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
WEAKNESSES LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL YIELD WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND AND MONDAY ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20...WITH ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO NEAR/EXCEED 100 DEGREES
EACH DAY.
THE THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER...ISSUED
BY CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...INDICATES GREATER PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL/NORMAL/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY INDICATED OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE
THREE MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SEPTEMBER INDICATES EQUAL
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL/NORMAL/BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS
ALL OF THE FOUR STATE REGION.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
POOL STAGES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL...GIVEN THE EXCESSIVELY HOT
TEMPERATURES...INCREASED EVAPORATION...AND LACK OF RAINFALL ACROSS THESE
WATERSHEDS. POOL STAGES HAVE FALLEN TO SOME TWO TO THREE FEET BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH CONTINUED DETERIORATION NOTED ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND
NORTH LOUISIANA. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN
GRADUALLY FALLING RESERVOIR LEVELS...WITH LAKE TAWAKONI...LAKE FORK...MARTIN
LAKE...LAKE NACOGDOCHES...LAKE TYLER...SAM RAYBURN LAKE...AND TOLEDO BEND
REMAINING SOME FOUR TO TEN FEET BELOW NORMAL. A GRADUAL DETERIORATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY EARLY AUGUST.
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