DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

...DISCUSSION...
   00Z GFS/ECMWF REMAIN SIMILAR IN MAINTAINING AN AMPLIFIED FULL
   LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS
   ON DAY 4 /MON/...AND THEN ACROSS THE ERN STATES ON DAY 5 /TUE/ AS A
   MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED SYSTEM.  THESE MODELS DO DIFFER IN THE TIMING
   OF THIS TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF FASTER...ESPECIALLY ON DAY 5
   ACCELERATING THIS TROUGH OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. 
  
   ...DAY 4 /MON APR 4/...
   MODELS MAINTAIN LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS FROM THE
   MID-LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
   STATES ON DAY 4.  GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD ACROSS THIS REGION
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH VERY STRONG EWD MIGRATING SLY LLJ.  TSTM
   ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED AS FORCING FOR DEEP ASCENT ATTENDING THE
   UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF STRONGER EML.  THIS AND STRONG WIND
   FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS
   WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.