Sunday, February 27, 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 157

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0807 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR...NERN TX
  
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
  
   VALID 280207Z - 280300Z
  
   00Z NAM/LATEST HRRR CONTINUE TO OFFER THE BEST GUIDANCE THIS EVENING
   AND SUGGEST THAT THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION NEAR THE ADVANCING
   DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT WILL INDEED DEEPEN THIS EVENING.  THIS IS IN
   RESPONSE TO LARGER-SCALE ASCENT FINALLY SPREADING EWD ATOP THE MOIST
   WARM SECTOR EFFECTIVELY WEAKENING INHIBITION.
  
   EXPECT THAT ANY STORM THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED WILL BE EMBEDDED IN
   200-400 M2/S2...HIGHEST ACROSS NE OK AND ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER.
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CELLS WILL BECOME LINEAR QUICKLY WITH
   POSSIBLE EMBEDDED BOWS/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES.
   OTHERWISE...CORRIDORS OF HIGH WIND MAY EVOLVE ACROSS FAR ERN OK AND
   AR LATER THIS EVENING...WITH THE SVR THREAT BACKBUILDING SWWD INTO
   FAR NE TX AS WELL.

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