Winter Weather Advisory

000
WWUS44 KSHV 312237
WSWSHV

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
437 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW
MORNING...DRIVING TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET
AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE EVENING TUESDAY.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124-125-136-137-
011200-
/O.NEW.KSHV.WW.Y.0003.110201T1800Z-110202T0300Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-MCCURTAIN-
RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-SMITH-
GREGG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...
MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...
GILMER...TYLER...LONGVIEW
437 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
NOON TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY.

* AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET...THEN
  SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
  SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE
  ADVISORY AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I30...WHILE A HALF INCH TO AN
  INCH WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE ADVISORY AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF I30.

* IMPACTS: AS AIR TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
  FREEZING TOMORROW...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SNOW WILL BE
  POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES...SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
  WARMER ROADS SHOULD REMAIN TROUBLE FREE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW OR SLEET
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Significant Weather Advisory

000
WWUS84 KSHV 310007
SPSSHV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
607 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

OKZ077-TXZ096-097-310100-
BOWIE-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-
607 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CST...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
     MCCURTAIN...
IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
     RED RIVER AND BOWIE...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     BOXELDER...

AT 603 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING 3 STRONG STORMS. 2 OF THESE STORMS WERE IN EASTERN
RED RIVER COUNTY. THE FIRST STORM WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
8 MILES SOUTH OF CLARKSVILLE OR NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF CUTHAND.
THE SECOND STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF ANNONA. THESE
STORMS SHOWED VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR.

ELSEWHERE...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF TOM OKLAHOMA OR 10 MILES NORTH OF DEKALB TEXAS. THIS STORM SHOWED
VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR.

ALL THESE STORMS THIS EVENING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE
PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL.

Day 1 - Convective Weather Outlook

THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING FROM NORTHERN
   MEXICO INTO SOUTH TX WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN/ CENTRAL
   GULF COAST REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES.  12Z
   RAOBS CONFIRM THAT MID LEVEL CAPPING HAS REMAINED ACROSS
   TX...SUPPRESSING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION SO FAR WITH THIS
   SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   EAST TX/LA AS STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION ERODE THE CAP.  ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
   PORTIONS OF AR/MS THROUGH THE DAY.  RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON MORNING
   RAOBS SUGGEST A RISK OF AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM...WITH HAIL BEING
   THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING
   AND KEEP MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG TODAY.

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT

000
AXUS74 KSHV 300215
DGTSHV
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-301400-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
815 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

...JANUARY RAINFALL HAS EASED THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS BUT SEVERE AND EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FOUR STATE REGION...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER ONE OF THE DRIEST DECEMBERS ON RECORD AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...EAST TEXAS...AND NORTH
LOUISIANA...RAINFALL HAS BEEN MORE PLENTIFUL DURING JANUARY...WITH
MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM TWO TO IN EXCESS OF FIVE INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR OF EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHERE
MONTHLY RAINFALL HAS AVERAGED A HALF INCH TO AN INCH. THIS RESULTED
IN MONTHLY DEPARTURE FROM NORMALS OF AN INCH AND A HALF TO IN EXCESS
OF TWO AND A HALF INCHES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THESE AREAS...WHEREAS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION OBSERVED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
MONTHLY RAINFALL. THIS NEEDED RAINFALL HAS HELPED TO SLIGHTLY
IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA...BUT ADDITIONAL NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS IS NEEDED TO FURTHER ALLEVIATE THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS THAT HAS PLAGUED MUCH OF THE AREA SINCE LAST SPRING.
DESPITE THE RAINFALL...EXTREME (D3) AND SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT
CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TEXAS...NORTH LOUISIANA...AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. MODERATE (D1) DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OBSERVED DURING JANUARY ACROSS
EAST TEXAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 30...MUCH OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...HAS IMPROVED SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS AND RECHARGED
STOCK PONDS. THE RAIN HAS HELPED THE EXISTING WINTER PASTURES...AND WAS
HOPED THAT IT WOULD JUMP START THOSE THAT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO GROW SO FAR
THIS WINTER. HAY SUPPLIES REMAINED SHORT...WITH SOME PRODUCERS HAVING TO
PURCHASE HAY AND ALFALFA FROM OTHER AREAS TO FEED THEIR LIVESTOCK.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
NO BURN BANS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION GIVEN
THE COOL AND WET CONDITIONS OBSERVED SO FAR THIS MONTH. HOWEVER...FIRE
DANGER REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS.
THE PLEASURE POINT WATER SYSTEM IN ANGELINA COUNTY TEXAS REMAINS
UNDER A MILD RATIONING OF WATER UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...

AFTER A VERY DRY DECEMBER...WHERE MANY LOCATIONS RANKED IN THE TOP 5
DRIEST DECEMBERS ON RECORD...JANUARY HAS SEEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TEXAS, NORTH LOUISIANA, AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER, BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL CONTINUES
TO BE A PROBLEM ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR, AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE JANUARY MONTHLY RAINFALL HAS
BARELY PUT A DENT IN THE ONGOING LONG TERM DROUGHT, WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA ONLY HAVING RECEIVED 55-65% OF THEIR NORMAL RAINFALL SINCE THE
DROUGHT BEGAN LAST MARCH. BELOW IS A LIST OF RAINFALL TOTALS FROM
MARCH 2010 THROUGH LATE JANUARY...THEIR DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...AND
THEIR PERCENTAGES OF NORMAL...FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION:

CITY:           MARCH - JANUARY       DEPARTURE      PERCENTAGE
               (THROUGH 1/28/11)     FROM NORMAL      OF NORMAL

SHREVEPORT LA         28.41             -18.31            61%

SHREVEPORT LA         28.50             -18.22            61%
(SOUTH SHREVEPORT/SOUTHERN HILLS OFFICIAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVING STATION)

MONROE LA             40.36              -2.40            94%

NATCHITOCHES LA       26.77             -19.87            57%

COLUMBIA LA           26.24             -28.31            48%

TEXARKANA AR          25.55             -17.54            59%

EL DORADO AR          27.53             -21.89            56%

HOPE 3NE AR           27.93             -22.72            55%

PRESCOTT 2NNW AR      28.98             -21.15            58%

DEQUEEN AR            25.07             -24.51            51%

MT. PLEASANT TX       29.74             -11.15            73%

TYLER TX              30.11             -11.10            73%

LONGVIEW TX           25.31             -19.55            56%

LUFKIN TX             29.47             -11.15            68%


SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS...
MT. HERMAN            33.42             -18.36            65%
BROKEN BOW            36.66             -15.12            71%
IDABEL                30.59             -16.60            65%


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

WITH MUCH OF JANUARY HAVING EXPERIENCED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE,
A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO GREET THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF FEBRUARY...AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION. THE APPROACH OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OF THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY WILL YIELD NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AREAWIDE TUESDAY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. HOWEVER...IN ITS
WAKE...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY-MARCH-APRIL...ISSUED
BY CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...INDICATES GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER ALL OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THE THREE
MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THROUGH APRIL INDICATES MOSTLY EQUAL CHANCES
FOR BELOW NORMAL...NORMAL...OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTH LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE WIDESPREAD THREE TO FIVE INCH RAINFALL TOTALS OBSERVED SO FAR IN JANUARY
ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA HAS YIELDED SOME IMPROVEMENT
TO AREA LAKES AND RESERVOIRS...ALTHOUGH MANY STILL REMAIN SOME TWO TO FOUR
FEET BELOW CONSERVATION POOL STAGE. HOWEVER...RAINFALL HAS BEEN MORE SCARCE
THIS MONTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND THE RED RIVER COUNTIES OF EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS...WHERE ONLY
A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
VERY DRY DECEMBER...RESERVOIRS SUCH AS DENISON...HUGO...PINE
CREEK...BROKEN BOW...DEQUEEN...AND DIERKS LAKE REMAIN SOME THREE TO
NINE FEET BELOW CONSERVATION POOL STAGE.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY LATE FEBRUARY.

Monday night / Tuesdays Weather Outlook

Showers and thunderstorms are possible late Monday night into Tuesday. Some of the stronger storms could produce heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. There is also the possibility of some isolated hail events. Hail size would be between 1/2 to 3/4 inch if it did occur. However based on current sounding data the possibility of hail is low.

Day 4 - 8 Convective Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 280921
   SPC AC 280921
  
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0321 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2011
  
   VALID 311200Z - 051200Z
  
   ...DISCUSSION...
   00Z ECMWF/GEFS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED
   EVOLUTION OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN-CENTRAL
   CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK /DAYS 4-5/. WHILE THE DETAILS OF EMBEDDED
   SHORTWAVE FEATURES ARE UNCERTAIN...THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER
   FORCING/ANTICIPATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...COMBINED WITH THE QUICK
   RETURN OF A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
   MEXICO...SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
   INITIALLY ACROSS TX MONDAY NIGHT/LATE DAY 4 INTO TUESDAY/DAY 5. AS
   SUCH...THE MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE
   FOCUSED AROUND DAY 5/TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TX/ARKLATEX AND
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE DEGREE OF GUIDANCE VARIABILITY AND
   UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF A POTENTIAL SEVERE
   EVENT PRECLUDE 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
   TIME.
  
   A FEW STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME ACROSS
   THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO DAY 6/WEDNESDAY...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
   POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS VERY LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC AC 281700
  
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1100 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2011
  
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
  
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
  
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN
   MEXICO AND WRN TX EARLY SAT...SLOWLY SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE
   REMAINDER OF TX AND TO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY BY SUN MORNING. AHEAD
   OF THIS TROUGH...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
   SRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH SLY SURFACE FLOW ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
   55-60 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS NWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. LIFT WITH THIS
   TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE RETURNING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNING ACROSS TX.
  
   ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE NRN
   CA COAST.  COOLING ALOFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN
   VERY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE MAINLY
   ALONG THE NRN CA COAST AND OFFSHORE.
  
   ...CNTRL/ERN TX...
   STRONG HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ACROSS MOST OF WRN...CNTRL...AND N TX BY AFTERNOON. MID TO
   UPPER 50S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NWD INTO CNTRL/NRN
   TX...BUT CAPPING WILL BE AN ISSUE MOST OF THE DAY.
   HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONGLY MIXED PROFILES ACROSS
   W CNTRL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON...ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE
   RETURN AND WHERE HEATING WILL BE STRONGEST. HERE...ISOLATED DIURNAL
   STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY HIGH BASED IN NATURE
   BUT CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS CONVERGENCE ALONG A
   WEAK COLD FRONT INCREASES AND PROGRESSES EWD INTO A MORE UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT...AND LIFT INCREASES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
  
   WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF -20 C...LARGE HAIL WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL
   CERTAINLY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWS.
   HOWEVER...WITH ANTECEDENT CAPPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM
   SECTOR...COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS
   UNCERTAIN...AND WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR ANY POTENTIAL
   UPGRADE TO SLIGHT.
  

Challenger's Lessons Still Echo 25 Years Later

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. -- For many, no single word evokes as much pain.

Challenger.


A quarter-century later, images of the exploding space shuttle still signify all that can go wrong with technology and the sharpest minds. The accident on Jan. 28, 1986 -- a scant 73 seconds into flight, nine miles above the Atlantic for all to see -- remains NASA's most visible failure.


It was the world's first high-tech catastrophe to unfold on live TV. Adding to the anguish was the young audience: School children everywhere tuned in that morning to watch the launch of the first schoolteacher and ordinary citizen bound for space, Christa McAuliffe. She never made it.


McAuliffe and six others on board perished as the cameras rolled, victims of stiff O-ring seals and feeble bureaucratic decisions.


It was, as one grief and trauma expert recalls, "the beginning of the age when the whole world knew what happened as it happened."


"That was kind of our pilot study for all the rest to come, I think. It was so ghastly," said Sally Karioth, a professor in Florida State University's school of nursing.


The crew compartment shot out of the fireball, intact, and continued upward another three miles before plummeting. The free fall lasted more than two minutes. There was no parachute to slow the descent, no escape system whatsoever; NASA had skipped all that in shuttle development. Space travel was considered so ordinary, in fact, that the Challenger seven wore little more than blue coveralls and skimpy motorcycle-type helmets for takeoff.


In a horrific flash, the most diverse space crew ever -- including one black, one Japanese-American and two women, one of them a Jew -- was gone. The name of NASA's second oldest shuttle was forever locked in a where-were-you moment.


"You say 'Challenger' and then we see that figure of smoke in the sky," said Karioth, who teaches death and dying classes.


There has been a growing list of calamities since then.

Waco. Oklahoma City. Columbine. 9/11. Shuttle Columbia. Katrina. Virginia Tech. And now, Tucson.

With so much carnage, another space catastrophe wouldn't have the same impact as Challenger, Karioth noted. "We're used to everybody dying now," she said.


The death of a young, vivacious schoolteacher, combined with NASA's stubborn refusal to share information about the accident and the realization that America's space program was fallible, added to the nation's collective pain.


President Ronald Reagan's poetic tribute soothed the day's raw emotions.

"The crew of the space shuttle Challenger honored us by the manner in which they lived their lives," Reagan told a grieving nation after canceling that night's State of the Union address. "We will never forget them, nor the last time we saw them, this morning, as they prepared for their journey and waved goodbye and 'slipped the surly bonds of Earth' to 'touch the face of God.'"


NASA safely had launched shuttles 24 times before, and a sense of routine and hurry-it-up had crept in. The space agency wanted to pull off 15 missions in 1986. Repeated delays with Columbia on that year's first flight and then with Challenger were spoiling the effort.


The first federal Martin Luther King holiday had just been observed. NASA's Voyager 2 probe, flying farther than any previous spacecraft, had swung past Uranus, discovering 10 new moons. "That's What Friends Are For," the AIDS charity anthem, topped the music charts. And a 37-year-old schoolteacher from Concord, N.H., was about to rocket into orbit.


"Imagine a history teacher making history," McAuliffe observed before the flight. She got an apple from a technician atop the ice-encrusted launch pad, before boarding Challenger one final time.

In the 20s at daybreak, the temperature had risen only into the mid-30s by the time Challenger blasted off at 11:38 a.m. "Go at throttle up," radioed commander Francis "Dick" Scobee.

What happened next was unthinkable, his widow says.


"It was really a shock wave that went across our country and around the world," June Scobee Rodgers said in an interview this week with The Associated Press. "People witnessed the loss of Challenger over and over on their televisions."


Dick Scobee. Michael Smith. Ellison Onizuka. Judith Resnik. Ronald McNair. Christa McAuliffe. Gregory Jarvis. The first of the shuttle astronauts to die on the job.

Seventeen years later, almost to the day, seven more astronauts were killed, this time at the end of their mission. Instead of booster rockets and freezing launch weather, fuel-tank foam insulation was to blame. The similarities between Challenger and Columbia, though, were haunting. Another multiethnic crew lost, more poor decision-making, an intolerant work culture, drum-beating pressure to launch.

NASA paused Thursday to remember all 17 astronauts lost in the line of duty over the years, including three from the Apollo launch pad fire in 1967. A wreath was laid at Arlington National Cemetery. And the shuttle fleet is grounded once more. Fuel tank cracking is the latest culprit.

NASA hopes to get Discovery flying by the end of February. Endeavour -- Challenger's replacement -- will follow in April. It will fly with or without commander Mark Kelly, who's tending to his wounded wife, Arizona U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, who was shot Jan. 8 in Tucson. Atlantis will close out the 30-year shuttle program with a summertime flight, No. 135.


Shuttle program manager John Shannon prefers not "to compare and contrast" the Challenger era and now. But he points out that he's felt "zero pressure" to rush the remaining flights, even though "we kind of get beat up a little bit" in some quarters for all the delays.

Roger Launius, a senior curator at the National Air and Space Museum in Washington, said, "When we look back 50 years from now on the shuttle program, we are going to view it as this remarkable technological achievement. And it had a remarkable run for 30 years. Some tragedies along the way, but enormous successes as well."


For their part, the families of the lost Challenger crew dwell on the good that came out of the accident: a network of education centers. The 48th Challenger Learning Center opens Friday in Louisville, Ky.

Steven J. McAuliffe, widower of Christa McAuliffe, said in a statement Thursday that remembrances by people across the country are "both comforting and inspirational to our family."


McAuliffe, a federal judge in Concord, N.H., said, "Christa confidently and joyfully embraced life, no less than her friends and colleagues on Challenger, and no less than the crews of Columbia, Apollo 1, and all of those people who courageously follow their own paths every day. I know Christa would say that that is the most precious lesson - ordinary people can make extraordinary contributions ..."

He said she would be especially pleased by the Challenger Center for Space Science Education. Dick Scobee's widow, June Rodgers, is an educator and founding board chairman of the center.

As she has on every Challenger anniversary, Rodgers will visit a learning center to watch the children in action. First, she will take part in NASA's public memorial service Friday morning at Kennedy Space Center, some 10 miles from Challenger's grave. The remains of the spacecraft -- what was retrieved from the ocean -- are buried in a pair of abandoned missile silos on Air Force property.

"I wonder if it's because the image is so ingrained in our brains, that it seems like yesterday," Rodgers said.

Almost as many years have passed since the accident, as the span of her 26-year marriage to Dick Scobee.

"Isn't it interesting about the number 25?" she asked softly. "Challenger was the 25th mission. This is 25 years."

A full generation has come and gone.

___

Mark Hamrick in Washington contributed to this report.

NOAA: Persistent Drought to Linger Across Southern United States

While wet and snowy weather has dominated the western U.S., persistent drought conditions are likely to linger in the Southern Plains and Southeast through mid to late spring, according to NOAA’s National Weather Service. La Niña has kept storms and most of their precipitation in the north, leaving the South drier than normal.
“The speed with which the drought developed across the southern United States is rather unusual considering that just last year El Niño dominated the region with abundant precipitation,” said Bill Proenza, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service southern region.“ Then it was as if a switch was flipped during the summer, changing to La Niña conditions.”
One of the major aspects of the emergence of La Niña was a very busy Atlantic hurricane season, which spawned 19 tropical storms, making it the third most active on record. Despite the large number of storms, only Hurricane Alex and Tropical Storm Hermine produced any appreciable rainfall in the southern United States. Those storms only affected Texas; no significant rainfall from an organized tropical system fell along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida.

Sparse tropical rainfall and the dry conditions associated with La Niña combined to create severe to extreme drought conditions for nearly a third of the South and Southeast by late fall and early winter.

While the drought touches all of the Gulf Coast states, Texas and Florida are the most affected. From October through December, Texas received only five to 50 percent of normal precipitation, with portions of the lower Rio Grande averaging less than five percent of normal. During that period, for example, Brownsville received only 0.14 inches (normal is 6.55 inches) and Del Rio received 0.04 inch (normal is 3.89 inches). To the north in Austin, only 1.55 inches of rainfall was observed, compared to the normal of 8.34 inches.

In Florida, 51 percent of the state was in severe to extreme drought by the end of 2010.  Some areas experienced the driest July 1 – December 31 period on record.  For example, Gainesville received only 12.95 inches of precipitation, compared to the previous record low of 15.25 inches. The city normally receives 27 inches. Daytona Beach ended the period with 14.71 inches compared to the previous record low of 15.35 inches − its normal is 30 inches.
In central and southern Florida, the South Florida Water Management District rain gauge network recorded an average of only 2.97 inches during the October through December period, breaking the previous record low average of 4.07 inches. Moreover, the District reports that Florida’s Lake Okeechobee ended the year at 12.4 feet, 2.3 feet below average.

In addition to agricultural and water conservation concerns, one of the major threats from the drought is the growing wildfire danger. More than 42,000 fires accounted for more than 775,000 acres burned throughout the affected southern tier states during 2010. 
Texas and Florida were among the hardest hit states. In Texas, the severe wildfire threat prompted Governor Rick Perry to issue a disaster proclamation for 244 of the state’s 254 counties. Meanwhile, Florida lost more than 400,000 acres to wildfires last year, with more predicted to come. Florida’s Forestry Division notes La Niña is expected to continue at least through spring and again anticipates greater than normal wildfire activity in 2011.

Getting the word out regarding likely La Niña impacts is imperative. "By providing information on current and future climate conditions to the public and to other federal, state and local decision makers, the National Weather Service can help them prepare for and react to such extreme weather events and to climate variability,” said David Brown, Ph.D., regional climate services director for NOAA’s National Weather Service southern region.

La Niña has developed 13 times since 1950, and the current La Niña ranks as the sixth strongest. The question climate experts are asking now is whether it will fade with the approach of summer or continue into next year.

“Of the five stronger La Niñas that occurred, four resulted in multi-year events,” said Victor Murphy, climate program manager for NOAA’s National Weather Service southern region. “If this La Niña persists until next winter, the threat of drought conditions in the south extending into next year will be heightened.”

Forecasting Freezing Rain

Freezing rain is one of the most difficult events to forecast. The smallest variations in temperature (even only tenths of a degree) can mean the difference between rain, freezing rain, sleet or snow. Freezing rain occurs less frequently than other winter weather events and falls in very narrow bands, usually not more than 50 kilometers wide. When attempting to forecast a freezing rain event, sounding data is very useful for examining vertical temperature profiles of the atmosphere, which are indicative of what type of precipitation (if any) will likely occur.

There are four types of soundings associated with the four different types of precipitation (mentioned above). In the following diagrams, the blue line represents the temperature profile of the atmosphere and the black line represents the 0C isotherm (a line of equal temperature). When the blue line is to the right of the black line, it means the atmospheric temperature is warmer than 0C, but when the blue line is to the left of the black line, it means the atmospheric temperature is colder than 0C.

Rain:

The entire temperature profile near the ground is above freezing so all ice particles completely melt and reach the ground as rain.

Freezing Rain: A shallow layer of cold air lies below a layer of warmer air, which completely melts all ice particles as they pass through. When the raindrops enter the shallow layer of cold air, they supercool and freeze instantly on contact

Snow:

The entire sounding is completely below freezing so the precipitation reaches the ground as snow.

Sleet: The warm layer is very shallow so ice crystals only partially melt as they pass through. Once they enter the cold layer below, they freeze again and strike the ground as ice pellets, or sleet.

Glory Mission

The Glory spacecraft, set to launch February 23, 2011, will study how the sun and airborne particles called aerosols affect Earth's climate.

Scientists have a thorough understanding of how greenhouse gases impact the energy budget, but the roles that two other critical elements of the climate system—the sun's total solar irradiance (TSI) and atmospheric aerosol particles—play are somewhat less certain. The Glory mission, which contains two key scientific instruments, will improve understanding of both.

One of these instruments—the Aerosol Polarimetery Sensor (APS)--will offer scientists new measurements of aerosols, which can affect climate by either absorbing or reflecting light depending on their type. The unique instrument measures polarized light to make aerosol measurements and should thus help scientists distinguish between aerosols types, such as dust and black carbon, from space. The other instrument, the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM), will continue a long-running record of the sun's brightness with unprecedented accuracy.

Results from both instruments will be used to fine-tune global climate models and to help scientists predict how climate change will impact different regions of the planet. Glory will join a fleet of other Earth observing satellites known as the A-Train. It is scheduled to launch aboard a Taurus XL launch vehicle no earlier than February 2011.

Missing Chapters of the Climate Story
Every second, millions of tons of hydrogen fuse into helium in the sun’s core as part of a massive chain of thermonuclear reactions that yield the energy equivalent of billions of exploding hydrogen bombs. This energy eventually makes its way to the sun’s surface and radiates outward in the form of light—some of it on a trajectory toward Earth.
However, only about half of the light headed toward Earth will thread its way through the atmosphere in such a way that it affects climate. About a third ricochets off the atmosphere, and the rest is temporarily absorbed, only to be radiated back out into space soon after.

Crucial among the gatekeepers are aerosols, tiny liquid and solid particles suspended in the atmosphere. Certain aerosols reflect radiation away from Earth, while others absorb it readily. Collectively, aerosol particles—which encompass everything from industrial pollution to sea salt to dust—play a key role in influencing Earth’s climate.

For climate scientists, aerosols pose a unique challenge. In comparison to greenhouse gases, they are extremely complex, short-lived, and dynamic. As a result, determining the best way to measure their abundance, quantify their behavior, and forecast their impact remains scientifically controversial.

It’s well-understood, for example, that greenhouse gases can trap heat in the atmosphere and change the balance between incoming and outgoing energy. Scientists call such a change in the Earth's energy budget a "forcing". Such forcings can push the climate toward either warming (a positive forcing) or cooling (a negative forcing).

In contrast, aerosols are considerably more complicated. While some aerosols, such as black carbon and dust, also absorb incoming sunlight and cause warming, others reflect incoming light and force the climate to cool.

Overall, aerosols are thought to have a net cooling effect on the Earth, but many questions about the elusive particles remain. Scientists, for example, are still working out the details of how aerosols are distributed globally, how they affect clouds, and how they absorb sunlight.

Such unresolved issues have caused the IPCC to list the level of scientific understanding about aerosols as "low." (Scientific understanding of greenhouse gases, in contrast, is listed as "high".) With the aim of reducing uncertainties associated with aerosols, both the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have identified aerosol research as a top priority.

The Glory satellite—which contains a sophisticated aerosol monitoring instrument that collects data at nine different wavelengths from the visible to short-wave infrared spectrum—will give scientists a much improved understanding of aerosols and how they affect climate. The instrument, NASA's first-ever space borne polarimeter, will make critical distinctions between natural and manmade aerosols possible. The information Glory's polarimeter provides will be used to refine global climate models and help scientists determine how the planet is responding to its changing climate.

Glory has another important climate monitoring objective: to maintain and improve a decades-long record of total solar irradiance (TSI), the amount of solar radiation striking the Earth’s upper atmosphere each second. Though considered constant in a broad sense, solar radiation actually fluctuates slightly as the sun cycles through periods of more and less intense activity approximately every eleven years.

While scientists have concluded that such variability isn’t substantial enough to cause the warming observed on Earth in recent decades, the sun provides the baseline of Earth’s climate over the long term. Accurate records of TSI will improve the accuracy of climate models and help scientists tease out the sun’s longer cyclical changes and how they may impact climate.

 

 

Adam Voiland
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Undulatus asperatus

                                                                                                          photograph by James Franco

                 

"A storm system moving across the Ozarks on June 7th produced widespread interest for more than just the thunder and rainfall it produced. As the system moved across the region, the balance of instability aloft and a relatively stable low level airmass helped to produce what was likely a potentially new form of clouds now under review by the WMO. The cloud type in question has been named, "Undulatus asperatus".

Undulatus asperatus (or alternately, asperatus) is a rare, newly recognized cloud formation, that was proposed in 2009 as the first cloud formation added since cirrus intortus in 1951 to the International Cloud Atlas of the WMO. The name translates approximately as roughened or agitated waves.

The clouds are most closely related to undulatus clouds. Although they appear dark and storm-like, they tend to dissipate without a storm forming. The ominous-looking clouds have been particularly common in the Plains states of the United States, often during the morning or midday hours following convective thunderstorm activity. As of June 2009 the Royal Meteorological Society is gathering evidence of the type of weather patterns in which undulatus asperatus clouds appear, so as to study how they form and decide whether they are distinct from other undulatus clouds."