MEXICO INTO SOUTH TX WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN/ CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES. 12Z
RAOBS CONFIRM THAT MID LEVEL CAPPING HAS REMAINED ACROSS
TX...SUPPRESSING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION SO FAR WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST TX/LA AS STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ERODE THE CAP. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF AR/MS THROUGH THE DAY. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON MORNING
RAOBS SUGGEST A RISK OF AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING
AND KEEP MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG TODAY.
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