Day 4 - 8 Convective Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 280921
   SPC AC 280921
  
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0321 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2011
  
   VALID 311200Z - 051200Z
  
   ...DISCUSSION...
   00Z ECMWF/GEFS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED
   EVOLUTION OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN-CENTRAL
   CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK /DAYS 4-5/. WHILE THE DETAILS OF EMBEDDED
   SHORTWAVE FEATURES ARE UNCERTAIN...THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER
   FORCING/ANTICIPATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...COMBINED WITH THE QUICK
   RETURN OF A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
   MEXICO...SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
   INITIALLY ACROSS TX MONDAY NIGHT/LATE DAY 4 INTO TUESDAY/DAY 5. AS
   SUCH...THE MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE
   FOCUSED AROUND DAY 5/TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TX/ARKLATEX AND
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE DEGREE OF GUIDANCE VARIABILITY AND
   UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF A POTENTIAL SEVERE
   EVENT PRECLUDE 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
   TIME.
  
   A FEW STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME ACROSS
   THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO DAY 6/WEDNESDAY...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
   POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS VERY LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.