Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC AC 281700
  
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1100 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2011
  
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
  
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
  
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN
   MEXICO AND WRN TX EARLY SAT...SLOWLY SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE
   REMAINDER OF TX AND TO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY BY SUN MORNING. AHEAD
   OF THIS TROUGH...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
   SRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH SLY SURFACE FLOW ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
   55-60 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS NWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. LIFT WITH THIS
   TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE RETURNING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNING ACROSS TX.
  
   ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE NRN
   CA COAST.  COOLING ALOFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN
   VERY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE MAINLY
   ALONG THE NRN CA COAST AND OFFSHORE.
  
   ...CNTRL/ERN TX...
   STRONG HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ACROSS MOST OF WRN...CNTRL...AND N TX BY AFTERNOON. MID TO
   UPPER 50S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NWD INTO CNTRL/NRN
   TX...BUT CAPPING WILL BE AN ISSUE MOST OF THE DAY.
   HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONGLY MIXED PROFILES ACROSS
   W CNTRL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON...ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE
   RETURN AND WHERE HEATING WILL BE STRONGEST. HERE...ISOLATED DIURNAL
   STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY HIGH BASED IN NATURE
   BUT CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS CONVERGENCE ALONG A
   WEAK COLD FRONT INCREASES AND PROGRESSES EWD INTO A MORE UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT...AND LIFT INCREASES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
  
   WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF -20 C...LARGE HAIL WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL
   CERTAINLY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWS.
   HOWEVER...WITH ANTECEDENT CAPPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM
   SECTOR...COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS
   UNCERTAIN...AND WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR ANY POTENTIAL
   UPGRADE TO SLIGHT.